284 
FXUS65 KFGZ 290340
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
840 PM MST Tue May 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms 
will persist through Thursday. Dry weather for all starts Friday, 
and max temperatures to warm to near normal values on Friday.
Pleasant weather to continue this weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough to keep unsettled weather
across the northern half of Arizona through Thursday. Models do 
show a shortwave to move into northwest Arizona early Wednesday 
and chances for showers were increased across Coconino county 
from 5 am to 11 am. Forecast soundings showing CAPES around 500 
j/kg and precipitable water near .50 inch, thus some showers may 
put down accumulation's greater than .10 inch during the 
afternoon. The soundings are drying and headed toward the inverted
V shape for Thursday afternoon, with gusty outflow winds more 
probable.

Thursday night through Tuesday. An additional closed low is shown
to move very slowly down the California coast. This feature puts
dry southerly flow aloft across Arizona. Expect dry weather with 
breezy afternoon winds. Max temperatures to reach seasonal values
by Friday and then warm a degree or two each day through Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Look for VFR conditions and 
generally light winds over the next 24 hours. Scattered showers 
under broken to overcast skies will continue to move east through 
09Z north Interstate 40. More widespread high terrain showers and 
storms are expected after 15Z with ceilings generally between 5-10 
kft. Erratic and gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of a 
thunderstorm. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday will see another chance for showers and
thunderstorms along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Otherwise, 
light winds and warming temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms are possible 
again Thursday afternoon, mostly north of I-40. Dry weather, 
southwesterly afternoon breezes and near normal temperatures are 
expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff