592 FXUS62 KTAE 281349 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 949 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... With the deep layer ridge holding in place again today, hot and mostly dry weather will dominate. 12Z sounding data indicates a bit more dry air in the lower levels today, especially from Tallahassee westward. This should allow for some lower dewpoints to mix down, and keep heat indices below 100 west of the river. To the east, the lower levels remain a bit more moist, with heat indices expected to crawl just over 100 degrees. The southeastern Big Bend will also see some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, with precipitable water values up around 1.7 inches. No major changes have been made to the forecast this morning, other than to bump high temperatures over the eastern counties up by about 1 degree. && .PREV DISCUSSION [614 AM EDT]... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]... In the upper levels the ridge over the region will weaken by Thursday afternoon. At the surface high pressure will remain over the region with southwesterly flow in the lower levels. POPs will remain low (around 20 percent or below) but a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow and Thursday afternoons. Skies will be mostly clear at night and partly cloudy in the daytime. Temperatures will be hot with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s away from the immediate coast. The heat index will be around 100 on Wednesday afternoon. .LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... In the upper levels there will be nearly zonal flow on Friday. A trough will be over the East Coast this weekend. A ridge will build back in on Monday. At the surface a weak cold front will approach the region on Friday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This weak boundary may linger over the region through the weekend. POPs will be around 20 to 30 percent in the afternoon Friday through Monday. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s. .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Wednesday] Some patchy fog is possible this morning mainly at ECP. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail this TAF cycle. Winds will be light and westerly. ECP will have a southerly seabreeze around 10 knots this afternoon. .MARINE... High pressure remains over the region. Light to moderate westerly winds are expected today. Beginning Wednesday southerly winds will be light to moderate. .FIRE WEATHER... A very dry air mass is in place with relative humidity values mostly between 27 to 35 percent across inland areas through at least Wednesday. Fuels are also dry in most locations. Red flag criteria will not be met since winds will be light and relative humidity values are not quite low enough. .HYDROLOGY... River levels are low due to the dry spell. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible this week. Expect a slightly better chance for rain (20 to 30 percent) Friday through Monday as a weak frontal boundary lingers. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 99 71 98 70 95 / 10 0 10 0 10 Panama City 88 74 90 74 88 / 10 0 10 10 10 Dothan 95 69 96 70 94 / 10 0 10 10 20 Albany 98 71 98 73 96 / 10 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 99 72 98 71 97 / 10 0 10 10 10 Cross City 97 73 95 71 94 / 20 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 89 73 88 74 87 / 10 0 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Camp SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM...McD AVIATION...McD MARINE...McD FIRE WEATHER...McD HYDROLOGY...McD