406 FXUS64 KTSA 271602 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1102 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019 .DISCUSSION... Text products were updated to remove the morning thunder potential wording. Some other minor tweaks to winds, dewpoints, sky cover and max temps were done as well. Thunderstorm activity is not expected today and tonight. Mid level temps are warmer today than yesterday, and this should keep any storms that form along the lee trof/dryline well to the west from making much eastward progress into OK tonight. Lacy && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 637 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Showers and thunderstorms may affect KBVO early this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will gust to over 25 knots at some sites late this morning and this afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 418 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019/ DISCUSSION... Severe line of storms continues to race east across east central Kansas. On the southern end of the line, the outflow has surged well ahead of the line into north central Oklahoma. This may set off some new showers or isolated storms across far northeast Oklahoma this morning, so will keep some low pops in for the first part of the forecast. Otherwise, this Memorial Day should remain thankfully dry, and this will be first dry day of the past few for northeast Oklahoma. The chance for showers and severe storms returns for Tuesday, although the main threat may hold off until late afternoon and evening. Upper low near the Four Corners will move northeast across northern CO as a surface low pressure system moves into Kansas. A cold front will be positioned across central Kansas by late Tuesday afternoon, with a warm and unstable airmass across much of central and eastern Oklahoma. Deep layer shear will support supercells forming in the afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. The strengthening of the low level jet by evening into the overnight hours may increase the tornado potential with low level shear values over 30 kt. Any additional rain is unwelcome at this point, given the ongoing widespread flooding. The potential for heavy rain is greater on Wednesday as the front makes its way across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The highest QPF amounts are currently forecast across northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma, but this depends on the position of the front. The potential for slow moving storms is high given the slow progression of the front and the likelihood of training storms. There will also be a risk for a few severe storms on Wednesday, mainly across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas ahead of the front. We will get a break from storms on Thursday and Friday, with more storms possible for next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 71 83 68 / 10 10 50 60 FSM 89 70 87 70 / 0 0 10 70 MLC 86 71 84 71 / 0 0 20 60 BVO 86 69 81 66 / 10 10 60 50 FYV 84 66 83 68 / 0 0 10 80 BYV 85 67 85 68 / 10 0 10 80 MKO 87 68 84 69 / 0 0 20 60 MIO 84 70 82 66 / 10 0 40 70 F10 86 69 83 70 / 0 0 20 60 HHW 86 70 85 71 / 0 0 10 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30