417 FXUS63 KOAX 270817 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 317 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019 Multiple rounds of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms moved through the forecast area overnight. A well-juiced atmosphere with dewpoints still in the low to mid 60s this morning will help maintain at least some severe threat through the early morning hours in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Heavy rainfall associated with these storms also raised flash flooding concerns across much of the area. Lingering convection is expected to move out of western Iowa by early this afternoon, with most of eastern Nebraska remaining fairly dry during the day. Additional convection this evening and overnight will be highly dependent on where a frontal boundary settles after this morning's storms and if we are able to really break through the capping inversion across the area. Models are starting to come into agreement in firing storms across the southern half of the forecast area Monday evening and overnight, although the latest NAM pushes the boundary further south, into Kansas and Missouri. Much of the forecast area remains in a Slight Risk for severe storms today, which seems reasonable given the potential for modest instability and shear profiles. A much more significant severe threat will arrive Tuesday as a strong upper low moves into the Central plains. More robust instability and shear, in addition to upper level/synoptic scale support will likely lead to scattered strong to severe storms along a dryline in southeast Nebraska and warm front over northeast Nebraska into Iowa. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all look possible with this system. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday and possibly Thursday as the low pressure system slowly pushes out of the area. Luckily, little to no severe weather threat is expected. Quieter weather may finally arrive Friday, before more active conditions return next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 First round of thunderstorms should be ending at OMA and OFK. VFR conditions expected in the lull before the next round of storms move into the area around 7Z. Thunderstorms and rain showers could lead to brief periods of less than VFR conditions. The second round of storms should end around 11Z at LNK and 12Z at OFK and OMA. VFR conditions should prevail after 12Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ034-044- 045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...KG LONG TERM...KG AVIATION...Fajman