981 FXUS61 KBGM 261926 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 326 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Early evening showers and thunderstorms across northeast Pennsylvania will give way to high pressure and drier conditions later tonight. High pressure stays over the area for Memorial Day, then a warm front returns with showers and some thunderstorms during the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 145 PM Update...Southern third of the CWA is within the favorable entrance region of a 500-250 mb jet core this afternoon with a surface cold front drifting southward across CNY. These combined with a weak MCV from overnight convection upstream (now moving across central PA) are the players for shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. All observed, and 12Z model projections, suggest that development of SHRA/TSRA over NEPA will take place later this afternoon, roughly between about 18Z- 00Z. A few renegade cells will be possible along the NY Southern Tier nearest the surface cold front and still within some marginal daytime instability. Not much has been changed to the overall pattern of the PoP/Wx forecast with a tight gradient of isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast with the greatest chances toward the Wyoming Valley and Poconos. I did nudge up the numbers to 60-70% likelihood in those areas for a few hours, otherwise mainly brief scattered activity is expected. CAMS models do have some discrepancy in coverage and strength of forecast radar echoes, or else we could have timed in the sure bet for rain. Overnight, the front passes far enough to our south with drier high pressure building in. Light NE wind and drier air should help to limit valley fog, but the T/Td trends will have to be monitored closely this evening. Eventual lows tonight dropping to the upper 40s in the Catskills and upper Susquehanna region with lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Memorial Day is still looking to be about as good as it gets here with high pressure settling over the area bringing mainly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures. Tomorrow's highs look to be just a touch lower than today, but still mainly in the low-mid 70s across CNY and upper 70s for NEPA. Fair weather lasts into Monday night before models lift a warm front back at us for Tuesday. 12Z NAM is the driest going toward 12Z Tuesday, while the GGEM and GFS definitely bring QPF to our western areas by morning. My hunch is that it will rain, but for now will play the blended guidance numbers and maintain just a chance of rain after 06Z Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 320 pm update... Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the next low pressure system expected to roll e/sewd across srn NY and ern PA with rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday evening...and then another batch of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. Mid week period will continue to be defined by a nearly stationary boundary stretching across NY and PA and multiple waves rolling ewd triggering a nearly continuous supply of showers and storms through the region. The north-south placement of this boundary will determine how far the warm/unstable sector. There may be a brief break late Tuesday night early Wed morning...but confidence is low. Temperatures will be on the mild side Tuesday with highs only topping out in the 60s and lower 70s...and dew points in the 50s. Conditions should be fairly stable early Tuesday with mainly rain showers. However, in the afternoon instability will become weak to marginal with a few isolated storms possible. Conditions on Wednesday will be a bit more conducive for thunderstorms with highs climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. ML CAPE values will likely exceed 1000 J/kg with deep layer shear around 40 kt will develop in and around an ewd moving surface low...which may end up being conducive for strong to possibly severe storms. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 320 pm update... A trailing cold front will sweep through west to east Wednesday night with diminishing showers and storms through the night. Yet another wave will ride in from the west across the Great Lakes Thursday with more showers and storms possible through Thursday. Lingering showers and isolated weak storms possible Thursday night with more uncertainty arriving on Friday. The latest GFS and CMC hold back the front across the region and linger even more showers through the area into Friday afternoon. However, the latest ECMWF brings the front clear through the area and builds in an area of high pressure from the west along with dry and cooler air mass. The high gets squeezed ewd on Saturday with a northern branch and southern branch low pressure systems moving in and bringing in more chances for precipitation by later in the weekend. Temperatures remain on the mild to warm side late this week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cumulus and alto-cumulus clouds are expected into this evening before scattering out, so VFR cigs are the plan for this forecast. Isolated to numerous convective showers/thunderstorms will affect areas mainly south of a KELM-KBGM line with most risk of encountering TS near KAVP between 20Z-23Z. Restrictions near TS should mainly be MVFR, although core punching a cell on approach would get you deep into IMC among other troubles. A cold front sweeps TS south of the area by 03Z. Late night fog restriction is possible for KAVP if the valley is hit with abundant rain. Too early to make that call in the TAF, but it is to be considered for the morning push. Drier air and light NE wind across NY should keep other terminals fog free. Winds W-NW 10-18 kts this afternoon becoming light and variable tonight, then N around 5 kts Monday morning. Outlook... Monday night and Tuesday... Some restrictions in showers late Monday night and Tuesday. Tuesday night Through Thursday... Mainly VFR but some restrictions from scattered showers and storms at times. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...JAB