028 
FXUS64 KMAF 261852
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Strong closed low rolling across CA today will move into the Great 
Basin tonight before reaching the Four Corners region Monday night.
This low will roll across CO Tuesday and into NE by evening. As 
it does a secondary trough will swing across Northern Mexico and 
into W TX Wednesday. A similar trough will follow that one on 
Thursday with a broad trough moving into NV Friday.. 

Have brisk S to SE surface flow with good low level moisture flowing 
into the area... dewpts in the 60s extend across most of the region.
There is a slight risk severe storms today across much of the 
Permian Basin and portions of Southeast New Mexico and the Trans 
Pecos. Widespread clouds has limiting insolation but beginning to 
get breaks as of 18z.  Did have showers develop across Lea county 
before noon... have also precip develop across Brewster county. 
Increased pops across southern half of the area tonight based on 
recent radar trends.  Models not developing much precip Monday 
during the day but SPC has a marginal risk out DY2 across much of 
the area... looks like may be better after 00z.  

A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Guadalupe Mountains above 
5500ft with a watch for tomorrow... have not seen high wind speeds 
yet but will leave it in effect as clearing cloud cover could result 
in more mixing. 

Should be warmer tomorrow in the low to mid 90s and very hot 
along the Rio Grande with highs of 101 to 109 expected. Readings 
should be near normal on Tuesday and a little cooler Wednesday 
then warming toward the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns increase today through Tuesday across the 
Guadalupe Mountains. The base of an upper trough is beginning to 
move over the area. This will result in stronger winds in the trough 
mixing down to the surface across the Guadalupe Mountains today 
through Tuesday. Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or less 
are expected west of the Pecos River today and expand eastward into 
the Permian Basin Monday and Tuesday. RFTI values of 5 to 7 are 
expected across the Guadalupe Mountains today through Tuesday. A 
Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains on 
Monday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  91  66  88 /  20   0  20   0 
Carlsbad                       59  92  59  88 /  10   0  10   0 
Dryden                         70  94  71  95 /  20  10  10   0 
Fort Stockton                  68  95  65  91 /  20  10  10   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 59  86  57  80 /  10   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          61  89  58  85 /  30   0  10   0 
Marfa                          55  90  54  86 /  10   0  10   0 
Midland Intl Airport           69  92  66  89 /  20   0  20   0 
Odessa                         68  93  66  89 /  20   0  20   0 
Wink                           64  96  63  91 /  20   0  10   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe 
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening 
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe 
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

&&

$$

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