933 
FXUS63 KMPX 260928
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
428 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Main concern in the short term is the threat for heavy rain Monday 
morning.

Today will be one of the nicest days of the year. High pressure will 
be overhead which will result in light winds and not much more than 
some fair weather cu.  Low to mid 70s for highs look like a good bet 
area wide.

Tonight, a short wave will eject out of Colorado, heading for 
southern MN Monday morning. A strong LLJ will develop once again in 
response to the height falls.  In addition, strong differential 
divergence develops over the area by Monday morning as we get into a 
favorable coupled jet structure. Pwats will increase to near 1.5", 
which is a little over 2 standard deviations above normal. In 
addition MUCAPE values of the airmass that will be running up over 
the warm front in Iowa will be between 2k and 3k j/kg, so many of 
the ingredients for a heavy rain event are in place for Monday 
morning. ECMWF and HREF probability matched QPF guidance show a 
widespread 2-3 inches of rain occurring south of a Canby, New 
Prague, to Red Wing line and most of that falls between 12z and 18z 
on Monday. Current QPF is close to the model consensus/WPC guidance, 
but would not be surprised to see the area of heaviest precip shift 
south some toward the better instability. WPC excessive rain 
outlook shows a slight risk for flash flooding where we have the 
heaviest rain, which looks reasonable.  Will be initiating a SitRep 
for this event this morning along with playing up the heavy rain 
threat a bit more in the HWO.

For Memorial Day, it looks like another crummy day, no other way to 
really dance around that one. We look to have a deformation shield 
of precipitation setting up across most of our area during the day 
on Monday, with temperatures in the afternoon holding steady in the 
50s with a steady light rain falling. So get out there and enjoy the 
weather today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Active weather continues into midweek, but signs are pointing 
towards a pattern change towards the end of the week which looks to 
bring a change to zonal flow aloft and relatively drier weather.

The bulk of the precipitation on Memorial day should be east of the 
area by evening, with a relative lull shaping up Monday night into 
Tuesday morning as a brief period of shortwave ridging builds behind 
the departing wave. Can't rule out some scattered light showers 
during this period but any precipitation would be light. A second 
bout of widespread precipitation is then expected to develop Tuesday 
afternoon into Wednesday morning as the upper level low passes 
overhead. Most guidance keeps the surface boundary and threat for 
severe thunderstorms well to our south Tuesday afternoon, but 
there's enough uncertainty in the warm sector nosing into far-
southern Minnesota to warrant a slight risk on the SPC Day 3 
Outlook. Heavy rain again looks to be the main threat with plenty of 
overrunning ascent on the north side of the front leading to 
widespread showers and thunderstorms. PW values Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning again surge to above the 90th percentile with 
additional rainfall amounts of around an inch looking possible across 
southern Minnesota. This will only exacerbate any impacts we see 
from Monday's rainfall.

Rain will taper off during the day on Wednesday as the low departs 
to the east, with the flow aloft becoming more zonal as the stout 
ridge over the southeastern US begins to flatten. Even with the weak 
flow aloft we could still see a few precip chances, mainly Friday 
into saturday, but overall precip amounts with these look light.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 959 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT CU will continue
to dissipate this evening with clear skies through most of 
Sunday. Winds will be light and variable. 

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind ESE 5kts.
Mon...MVFR/SHRA. Chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind E 15G25 kts. 
Tue...MVFR/SHRA. Chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 10-15kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF