339 FXUS61 KBGM 260838 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 438 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves south across the area Sunday. Meanwhile, a disturbance tracking eastward from the Midwest will bring a chance of showers and storms ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and early evening. High pressure building in from the north will cause the front to progress south of the area Sunday night and stall over the Mid-Atlantic region on Memorial Day. The risk for showers and storms return midweek with this boundary gradually returning back northward as a warm front. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 230 AM Sunday... The last of the precip from last night's MCS has exited the region overnight. Except for an isolated pop-up shower that may develop toward the Catskills, conditions should be dry across the area through at least mid morning, if not midday. Breaks in the stratus has allowed patchy fog to form in the typical sheltered river valleys. A cold front currently over the Great Lakes region early this morning will progress to the S-SE through the region this afternoon. Meanwhile, an MCS that is currently located over the Midwest will be steered by belt of stronger (50+ kt) mid-level westerlies situated on the northern periphery of the strong Southeast U.S. This brings the complex into the northern Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening. While the more robust lift and organized convection associated with the MCS should stay to our southwest, there looks to be some peripheral forcing ahead of the cold front to support additional isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms farther northeast. CAMs generally show this separate area of convection initiating across NEPA and nearby Southern Tier of NY/Catskills region during peak heating. While the greater instability and severe thunderstorm threat will be south of the region, a few storms could become strong toward the Wyoming Valley this afternoon. Regardless, those with outdoor plans this afternoon should keep a close eye given the safety risk posed by lightning. Forecast high temperatures are generally in the mid 70s with upper 70s possible in the lower elevations of the Southern Tier of NY and lower to mid 80s possible in the Wyoming Valley. NW winds 10-15 mph will gust 20-25 mph this afternoon. The cold front will move south of the region this evening. Any lingering late-day convection should dissipate/move south of the Wyoming Valley around or shortly after sunset. A favorable radiational cooling setup in most spots tonight as winds become light and breaks in the clouds develop. High pressure will continue to influence the region and allow for pleasant weather conditions on Memorial Day. Periods of sunshine and highs in the 70s can be expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... While we start the night fairly dry another area of low pressure and a warm front will begin to approach our region from the west. Moisture is expected to be lifted and overrun the frontal boundary for periods of showers late Monday night into Tuesday. Some elevated instability may result in a rumble or two of thunder as well. The warm front looks to stall over the region on Tuesday so a few additional showers after the main batch in the morning can not be ruled out. The operational GFS looks to be a cool outlier from the model guidance overdoing the effect of precipitation on temperatures. We continued to opt for some warming on Tuesday but clouds should keep highs in the 60's into the 70's after temperatures start out in the 50's. Rainfall looks to be around half an inch or so. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tuesday night through Thursday night: Recent trends over the past several days have shown our time in the warm sector ahead of the next front to be shorter and shorter. It still looks like the warm front lifts into the far northern portions of our area on Wednesday with the next cold front still to our west. The cold front is then expected to push through the region sometime Thursday or Thursday night. Plenty of moisture will be drawn into our region with enough lift for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of anything strong to severe it still looks conditional dependent on frontal location and timing. Potential is still present for some instability to advect northward into our region behind the warm front. Given the trends with our region potentially now struggling to get into the warm sector highs have been lowered slightly. Temperatures should mainly range from the 50's through the 70's. Friday and Saturday: While a few ensemble members linger shower chances around it looks like high pressure should push the front east of the region with a window for drier conditions. A quick shot of cool dry air from Canada will knock temperatures downward a touch Friday. However, return flow and some warming is anticipated by Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Variable CIGs and VSBYs across the CNY and NEPA terminals overnight in wake of the rainfall earlier in the night. Overnight stratus with MVFR/fuel-alternate CIGs have been slow to form across N/Wrn terminals (ELM, ITH, SYR, RME). Conversely, the low clouds at BGM and AVP that arrived with last night's rain never lifted, resulting in LIFR/IFR CIGs at BGM (although CIGs this low has been an outlier) and fuel alternate at AVP. Fog seems to be only impacting ELM thus far with VSBYs varying considerably between 3/4SM and 10SM so far overnight. Given the breaks in the stratus over the next few hours, the potential for restrictions in fog should persist through dawn at ELM. Improvement to VFR is expected by mid morning with low clouds scattering out. A broken CU field (CIGs 3500-5000 ft AGL) should develop later in the morning. Scattered showers and storms expected to develop during peak heating this afternoon mainly along and south of the CNY-NEPA border. Uncertainty in timing/coverage still too high to put in a TSRA FM group for the 06Z TAFs, but it will strongly considered for the 12Z TAF issuance (especially at AVP). Light SW winds overnight become W-NW after daybreak this morning and then NW by this afternoon. Wind speeds of 8-12 kt will gusts to 20 kt this afternoon. Any lingering convection in NEPA early this evening should dissipate/move south of the region after sunset. The potential for low clouds and valley fog a possibility as winds become light and variable tonight. VFR conditions with a N wind 5-10 kt expected for Memorial Day. Outlook... Monday night and Tuesday... Some restrictions in showers late Monday night and Tuesday. Tuesday night Through Thursday... Mainly VFR but some restrictions from scattered showers and storms at times. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JRK NEAR TERM...JRK SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...JRK