625 FXUS63 KEAX 260507 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019 Our active weather pattern will continue this afternoon into the overnight hours, but some uncertainty does exist within both the possible periods of weather. For this afternoon the main concern will be possible strong to severe storms over northern Missouri in an area of surface convergence ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary. There is currently a capping inversion around 6kft which has created a solid stratocumulus deck over the area and my actually help inhibit additional heating and chances to break this cap. CAMs continue to indicate that there will be just enough lift in the mid levels and warming on the surface to help stretch this layer and help break this cap around 4-5pm. We are still leaning towards this occurring as surface temperatures have gotten into the upper 70s and dewpoints are now just below 70 which was needed for this to occur. If the cap does break this afternoon we will have around 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50kts of effective bulk shear. Soundings indicate that supercells are possible and large hail (up to golf balls) and damaging winds will be the main threat. The DCAPE values will be near 1200 J/kg so this does indicate strong downbursts are possible with these storms. This activity will be mainly limited to HWY 36 and north with only some isolated showers and storms possible south of that due to no real forcing mechanism to focus on. The next threat for the area appears to be a possible QLCS that is expected to form out over TX/OK/KS and slowly propagate up into our area around midnight. There are many factors that could change the storm mode and severity of this line as it pushes through, but the HRRR does tend to have favorable low level shear to keep this system balanced and possibly a wind threat with potential mesovorticies along any surges. While the severe weather threat is there with this line the main impacts may actually be flooding as a quick 1-2" is possible with this system. Our flash flood guidance has recovered some this afternoon but most of the area in the flash flood watch has less than 2" for 1 and 3 hour periods. The western side of the KC Metro and down along I-35 corridor and north central Missouri have the lowest guidance and would be the main area of concern overnight. Models are also hinting at a strong LLJ forming early in the morning that may help initiate new convection or at least provide enough isentropic accent to form showers and storms over eastern KS and western Missouri around sunrise and into the late morning. This would not be favorable for the area and would be a possible flood setup so this will need to be watched as a possibility as the evolution of the possible QLCS is observed this evening. A shortwave will exit the Rockies Sunday night causing a low pressure to form with a warm front extending into NW Missouri on Sunday afternoon. This could redevelop some showers and storms, with some being strong to severe, Sunday evening into the overnight hours. This low pressure system will track to the north Monday setting up the stage for severe weather Tuesday. The timing of the cold front pushing through on Tuesday afternoon is what makes this setup worth watching. We will be in the warm sector all day with no real morning MCS threats to kill our heating chances. A strong upper and mid level jet over eastern KS will provide plenty of shear with instability present. The details will reveal themselves as we get closer to the event. Finally! A few dry days look possible Wednesday afternoon through Friday late morning giving us at least a small window to dry out. Unfortunately this window will not last long as troughing and another wet pattern sets up going into next weekend and early next week. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1207 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019 North/south line of thunderstorms embedded in heavy showers continues to impact eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Strongest storms have weakened over the last hour, however, still expect strong winds and MVFR conditions associated with heavier showers through 10Z. Precipitation quickly tapers off before sunrise and ceilings break by midday with southerly winds 6-10 kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>024-028>031-037-038-043-044-053. && $$ Discussion...Barham Aviation...32/Otto