276 FXUS64 KHGX 252325 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 625 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Southerly winds should decouple some tonight under a 20-25 knot low level jet from the SE. Ceilings should stay mainly VFR except there may be some brief periods of MVFR for KCLL/KUTS and KCXO for the morning. Tomorrow should be another repeat as ceilings increase and scatter. Winds should increase above 10kts again during the day. Overpeck && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 340 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019/... .DISCUSSION... Overall very warm conditions will persist through the holiday weekend will little more than a light shower some spots with afternoon heating during the day...and possibly streaming in off the Gulf during the night. SE TX on western flank of ridging at surface and aloft. Ridging aloft starts to break down Monday as even more so mid week as upper trough over west start to shift eastward. At surface onshore flow continues to pump in moisture from the Gulf. A front drops down across north Texas on Wednesday...focussing thunderstorms over that area. How far south front and convection get middle and late next week still somewhat of a question mark...but will certainly have increasing rain chances Tuesday through Thursday with front closer by and weakening cap with less of that upper ridge. .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday Night]... Another warm humid night on tap with mainly dry conditions. Modest boundary flow should again inhibit fog formation tonight but will again see stratus development. Cant rule out a light few showers early evening left over from daytime heating then streaming off the Gulf but coverage low...warranting no more than a 10 percent POP for measurable precipitation. Generally more of the same for the rest of the holiday weekend...warm and humid...few light showers or sprinkles with afternoon heating and streaming in off Gulf at night. Gusty winds and enhanced surf...rip current risk at the shore. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Tuesday through Thursday...Upper ridge breaks down...flow becomes flatter from the SW. Short wave energy...better dynamics stay mostly NW of the forecast area but with weakening upper ridge and general lift downstream of upper trough...along with less convective inhibition...would expect increasing thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday especially NW counties. Surface front pushing through N TX Wednesday will help focus convection there. As mentioned not clear how far south this front will get into our forecast area but outflows from that convection could also help focus storms. Friday and Saturday...farily zonal flow...some riding building in from the SE. Some thunderstorm chances, more diurnally driven but also potential for capping esp southern zones. 18 .MARINE... Winds and seas have come down just enough to lower the Caution flags, but they are expected to rise a bit again tonight so will keep them up for now. We might get a chance to take them out again some time around Sunday night and/or Monday, but they are expected to rise again Monday night and Tuesday. We'll likely be playing this game into the middle of the upcoming week. Despite the slightly lower southeast winds, the Coastal Flood Advisory will continue for now as the onshore fetch persists. Minor coastal flooding with wave run-up remain a possibility (especially during high tides) for Gulf facing locations. Additionally, the surf will remain elevated to rough at times... with strong rip currents a concern given the increase in beach goers for the ongoing holiday weekend. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 90 72 90 74 / 10 0 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 73 90 74 90 76 / 10 0 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 77 83 78 83 79 / 10 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Sunday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION... NEAR TERM...18 SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18 AVIATION...Overpeck MARINE...42 FIRE WEATHER...42