739 
FXUS63 KFSD 251117
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
617 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

A nice day in store across the area as a weak surface ridge builds 
into the region. This will result in mostly sunny skies and light 
winds. With the passage of a frontal boundary, temperatures will be 
a little cooler today overall, with lower to mid 70s dominating. The 
surface high pressure drifts slowly off to the east and strengthens 
tonight. Under clear to partly cloudy skies, lows will fall into the 
upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Another decent day for most of Sunday, with warming temperatures as 
the surface high nudges more to the east and a southerly low level 
flow begins to return to the region. Highs will be in the mid to 
upper 70s. By Sunday evening a shortwave will begin to lift into the 
region on a southwesterly upper level flow, and with increasing 
theta e advection and instability, will see thunderstorm chances 
increase on Sunday night. There remains a risk of a few severe 
storms through the Missouri River on Sunday evening where the better 
instability/shear/mid level lapse rates resides, so current SPC 
Slight Risk seems valid. Could see some heavy rain with these storms 
later on Sunday night as the low level jet strengthens across the 
area.

There should be a decrease in the activity by Monday morning, though 
there could be additional development by Monday evening as a surface 
low lifts out of Nebraska, pushing a warm front into our area. Still 
seeing model differences with regard to where this low tracks and 
where the warm front actually ends up, but a severe weather risk 
remains with SPC issuing a Slight/Marginal Risk for our area in 
conjunction with this. 

The wet pattern of late continues for Tuesday and Wednesday as an 
upper level low tracks through the Northern Plains, with rain 
chances remaining for both days. With that temperatures will drop 
back to at or just below normal for this time of year. Models 
suggest a drier period for the end of next week, with no significant 
warming in site.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

VFR conditions will persist through 12z Sunday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Chapman