872 FXUS63 KLMK 250730 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 330 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 Upper ridge over the southeast CONUS remains the dominant weather feature, with heat and humidity expected to continue for most of the holiday weekend across the Ohio Valley. A weak disturbance lifting NNE across Kentucky has spawned a small batch of convection over south-central Kentucky. First few hrs of the forecast will hinge on the evolution of the showers and storms as they head NE from near Green River Lake into the Bluegrass region around daybreak. Will carry chance POPs along and SE of the track of this precip, allowing for additional development/expansion. Most of the day should be dry as the ridge reasserts itself. Debris cloudiness over southern Illinois could set up a differential heating boundary, which would drive afternoon convection that could impinge on our southern Indiana counties. Will include a slight chance there. Max temps this afternoon should be just either side of 90, most likely coming up at least a little short of record highs. Another warm and muggy night in store, with a slight chance for storms again in southern Indiana, depending on timing and southward progress of convection along the front draped across Illinois and Indiana. && .Long Term...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 Models are in pretty good agreement on a shortwave trough moving across our longitude during the day Sunday, but the question mark is how much it will push on the warm ridge dominating the weather at least in southern KY the last few days. Given the confidence in the timing for this passage, during peak heating, would think the extra forcing aloft will allow for scattered storms to develop at least over our southern IN and northern KY counties by late afternoon and into the evening hours. The situation for Monday may end up being similar to yesterday's setup. Some models are indicating a bump up in the ridge again in the wake of the Sunday trough passage that helps quell convection over most of our area, save for perhaps an arc across southern IN and the Bluegrass. Others allow for upstream convection to be able to get farther south. Either way, think with peak heating and boundaries left behind from earlier activity we will see at least isolated activity Monday, perhaps widely scattered in the Bluegrass and southeast IN. Tuesday continues to look like the driest day of the period, as a stronger trough upstream over the Central Plains amplifies our ridge briefly. That trough will bring us rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, and possibly into Friday...as it will be in no rush to clear the Ohio Valley. Of the three days, think the best chances will be Thursday, given the proximity to a surface boundary providing focus for development. Expect high temperatures to come down closer to normal as close out the work week. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 110 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 Main challenge overnight will be the evolution of the debris clouds from earlier convection over Tennessee, as this cloud shield has now moved north into BWG and knocking on the door of HNB. Will initialize a ceiling at both of those sites, and expect the clouds to turn NE, developing ceilings at SDF and LEX toward daybreak. Hi- res models are hinting at convective development near LEX around daybreak, but probabilities are too low to include at this time. Either way cigs will remain VFR. Most of the daytime period will see SW winds picking up to 12-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt through the afternoon, and fairly high-based diurnal cu. Gusts will diminish and cu will dissipate after sunset with the loss of heating. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...RAS Long Term...RJS Aviation...RAS