741 FXUS61 KBTV 241926 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 326 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Clearing skies will develop this evening, along with diminishing winds as high pressure builds in from the eastern Great Lakes region. The tranquil weather will only last through the first half of Saturday. Thereafter, a warm front pushing in from southwest New York will allow widespread showers to develop across the region from west to east late in the afternoon or evening, into Saturday night. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will linger into Sunday morning with a cold frontal passage, then drier conditions are expected by mid to late afternoon. Monday will be dry with highs in the 60s to around 70. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Friday...Low pressure continues to pull away from the region this afternoon, moving south of Nova Scotia and out into the Atlantic. Moisture associated with this system will likewise exit to the east, with high pressure building across the North Country tonight into Saturday. Hence, clouds will dissipate this evening as we lose daytime heating. This with light winds will allow for good radiational cooling; lows will be in the mid to upper 40s for most, though the usual cold spots in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will bottom out around 40. Clouds will increase Saturday morning ahead of a warm front lifting in from the southwest. Precipitation associated with the front will follow, moving into our NY areas mid afternoon, and into Vermont late afternoon into the early evening hours. Initially, warm air advection aloft will keep us capped, so don't anticipate any thunderstorms through most of the daylight hours. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Deep moisture plume will stream northward into the region late tomorrow into tomorrow night ahead of an approaching cold front. PWATs are progged to exceed 1.50 inches from the Champlain Valley westward. Some elevated instability will spread into northern NY, allowing thunderstorms to develop. These will interact with the copious moisture and warm cloud depths of 10+ kft to produce heavy rain at times through the evening hours. The best moisture and instability starts to get shunted to the southeast after midnight as the prefrontal trough moves through, so the threat will wane as we head toward sunrise Sunday morning. Rainfall totals through Saturday night will be a third to around a half an inch in Vermont, while some NY locations could see upwards of an inch. Higher amounts will be possible in any convection. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to around 60. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday...Front clears through the area during the morning to early afternoon hours on Sunday with little fanfare. Maintained very low end pops (20-30%) for showers or an isolated storm through the morning hours to account for any scattered activity but forcing is rather weak along the wind shift so most of the day should turn out dry with highs seasonably mild in the 70s to locally near 80. Then trending mainly clear Sunday night under building high pressure with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday...H5 ridge then crests atop the region on Monday with sunny skies and mild temperatures in the 60s. This will be the best day of the workweek for outdoor activities. Thereafter the general wx trends unsettled as the forecast area will reside on the northern edge of deep layer southeastern CONUS ridging. Periodic shortwave wave passages embedded in fast west to southwesterly flow aloft should ensure near daily chances of showers and occasional storms, though inherent timing uncertainties in day 4- 7 forecasts leads me to keep pop values reasonable side (40-60%) at this point. Best threat of storms looks, at least at this point to occur on Wednesday into Thursday when the combination of heating and moisture looks the greatest. Temperatures in general to average within 5 degrees of late May seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Mainly MVFR conditions through mid afternoon, with gradual improvement to VFR thereafter as stratus clouds begin to erode. A few showers are possible through the afternoon as well, especially at KSLK. Some brief IFR visibility in drizzle or fog possible at KSLK through 20z as well. Clearing skies and VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. The exception is at KMPV where patchy fog 07z-12z Saturday will bring visibility down to 2SM at times. Northwest winds 10-15 kt with higher gusts will subside this evening as the sun sets; light and variable overnight turning to south 5-10 kt after 12z Sat. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Hastings