090 FXUS64 KBMX 241818 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 118 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 .UPDATE... For 18Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Temperatures this morning are generally right on track which will allow most locations to reach near record highs this afternoon. Persistent ridging over the southeast has maintained strength with a 594 decameter high measured once again from the 12Z sounding this morning. However, low level moisture has been slightly higher this morning with dewpoints near 70 degrees as of 16Z. Dewpoints are still expected to decrease into the mid 60s with afternoon mixing, but heat indices may be near 100 degrees in some areas if dewpoints are 2 to 3 degrees higher. An upper level impulse was also identified this morning as it rounded the base of the ridge axis. This feature has produced light showers in north Mississippi, but most shower activity has remained out of our forecast area so far. Through surface analysis, a mesoscale boundary was identified just south of the Birmingham area with an east to west line of cumulus development. Despite the widespread subsidence, this northward moving boundary may support an isolated shower, mostly north and west, during peak heating this afternoon. Therefore, low chance PoPs will remain in this update. 86 Previous short-term discussion:Today and Tonight. Overall, the heat ridge is in place over the area, and an elongated surface high pressure system stretches in from the Atlantic. Southerly flow on the outer edge of the surface high, may provide just enough moisture to squeeze out a few more isolated showers/storms this afternoon. Primary focus will be in the north and west, where a weakening in the ridge exists. Confidence is low and the activity will be based on mesoscale features. Will only go with a 10 percent chance, but mention weather in the forecast. Just can't rule out the activity. Highs will be the low to mid 90s today with lows in the upper mid to upper 60s overnight. 16 .LONG TERM... /Issued at 315 AM CDT/ Saturday through Thursday. * Record high temperatures possible through mid next week with no widespread rain chances currently forecast. * For specific information on record high temperatures and record warm lows for the four Central Alabama climate locations, please refer to the Climate section at the bottom. Deep-layer ridging across the Southeast CONUS will have a firm grip on controlling the synoptic pattern into the long-term. Above average temperatures and near-zero chances for rain will exist for several days. As such, not many changes were made to the forecast through mid next week as the pattern has remained locked-in. We'll experience many hot afternoons (widespread low to upper 90s) with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees in some places, particularly across the south as we head into early next week. Temperatures & Heat Index values continue to remain just below criteria for a Heat Advisory, though any subtle changes in low-level moisture values can cause those to bump up a bit, so will continue to watch in the coming days. For now it appears dewpoints will continue to mix out into the low/mid 60s, thus the lack of significant apparent temperature increases. Otherwise, still encouraging those who have outdoor plans during the next several days, including those who earn a living outside, should take precautionary action to avoid overexposure and dehydration during this extended period of summer- like heat. A pattern change will be needed in order to get large scale changes in local weather conditions, including relief from the heat and lack of rainfall. Some indications this may hopefully take place by late next week. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours. Weak ridging remains with fair weather cumulus clouds with heating. Winds are light from the SW-W with mixing. Overnight conditions are expected to remain mostly clear with near calm winds. Our atmosphere is overall dry with only very isolated afternoon rain chances with heating, too low to mention in terminals. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions will persist across Central Alabama into early next week. However, afternoon minimum heat index values are not expected to reach critical levels. Also, 20 foot winds are expected to remain overall light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 95 66 96 67 / 10 10 0 0 0 Anniston 67 95 68 96 69 / 10 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 71 96 69 97 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 70 97 69 99 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 Calera 68 95 68 96 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Auburn 69 95 71 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 70 96 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 68 96 69 98 71 / 0 0 0 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$ 86/16/40/08