011 FXUS63 KILX 241553 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1053 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 15z/10am surface analysis shows a warm front along the I-74 corridor. To the north of the front, cloud cover and easterly winds have kept temperatures in the 60s. Meanwhile south of the boundary, sunshine and southerly winds have already boosted readings into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The front will lift northward as the day progresses, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the 80s across the entire KILX CWA. Current radar mosaic continues to show clusters of thunderstorms from northeast Missouri to southern Wisconsin. These cells are tracking northeastward and will primarily impact locations northwest of the Illinois River through midday. Once this activity passes to the north, a lull in precip chances will occur early this afternoon before additional cells develop along an old outflow boundary by late afternoon. Given a highly unstable and moderately sheared environment, some of these storms could become severe across the Illinois River Valley from late afternoon into the evening. Have included high chance PoPs across this area accordingly...with dry weather anticipated further E/SE across the remainder of central Illinois. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Weak frontal boundary draped across central IL this morning with muggy air and dew points in the upper 50s and 60s in most locations...around 70 in southeastern IL. That meandering warm front should continue to surge northward today, as winds become increasingly southwesterly by the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorm chances will follow that boundary through the early day. Series of disturbances moving through the region in deep southwesterly flow aloft along and above a weak baroclinic zone over the midsection of the country. Pops will remain through the day for the mid Mississippi River Valley and into the overnight. The higher QPF is off to the NW as Central IL is set up to be mainly in the warm sector this afternoon. However, the storm system/convection is modeled to sag to the southeast and into Central IL overnight tonight as the low lifts out over the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Models have varied quite a bit in how far to the south the stronger convection will get, given its support is in that strong SWrly band between the western trough and the eastern ridging over the CONUS. But given a broad swath of instability in a warm and muggy airmass...much of Central IL is in a Marginal/Slight risk for the overnight hours. Much of the severe threat is contingent on many mesoscale features to the NW and the evolution of afternoon convection outside of Central IL. Not enough confidence in a high QPF forecast for ILX CWA to join in the Flash Flood Watch to the NW that is deeper into a better set up. However, going into the weekend and a continued series of waves bringing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms...that decision may only be delayed. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Again..active weather pattern continues, with a deep trough over the western half of the country, and a persistent ridging from the Gulf Coast up the eastern seaboard. A series of waves move out of the SW into the region bringing periodic showers and thunderstorms. Eventually, flash flood guidance will start to shrink due to continued precip, and given the recent rains in general, it won't take long. There is a lot of model variation with the details as the differences in how the convection and mesoscale features change...in particular the meandering boundaries impacted by outflow and MCS remnants. Deep southwesterly flow continues, and temperatures through the weekend remain above normal, although there will likely be some hit or miss max/mins due to precip activity and cloud cover. With the active pattern, the forecast through mid week is dominated by precip. BEST chances continue in two places... the weekend, as the next low ejects out of the SW and drags a front through the region. Next likely pops show up Tuesday night as both the ECMWF and the GFS try to clear the western trough and pull a major storm system across the country's midsection. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Earlier showers/storms have cleared the TAF sites, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail during this TAF period. Will need to watch for some renewed development late this afternoon and evening near the Illinois River valley. At this point, will only mention VCTS at KPIA, though a few of the high-res models suggest isolated convection possible elsewhere in central Illinois. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Geelhart