360 FXUS61 KCAR 231921 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 321 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the west this evening and cross the area late tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Friday into Friday night and slide south of the area Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... After a rather pleasant afternoon, clouds will be on the increase the balance of the daylight hours through early this evening, in advance of an approaching short wave from the Great Lakes region. Expect rain to begin to overspread western areas around sunset and then spread across the remainder of the forecast area through midnight. Still looks like a widespread half to three quarters on an inch of rain can be expected across the region, with somewhat lesser amounts across Northern Aroostook County and the St. John Valley. An isolated rumble of thunder or two can't completely be ruled out, mainly central highlands to the coast, as the upper level feature crosses the region overnight. As pointed out by previous shifts, there is some elevated instabilty, but not high enough confidence to include in forecast. It will be a milder night than last night, with lows expected to be in the upper 40 most areas. The surface and upper level low will quickly exit east of the coast Friday morning, with the steady rain ending shortly after sunrise, giving way to a lingering shower by early afternoon. We should begin to see the sky brighten late afternoon as high pressure builds east. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure will be sliding south of Nova Scotia Friday evening as surface high pressure and an upper level ridge builds in from the west. This will bring a mostly clear night and some spotty showers will likely linger. High pressure south of the area combined with an upper level ridge will bring a sunny to partly cloudy and warm day Saturday. Our focus then turns to a fast moving shortwave approaching from the west Saturday evening. Clouds may begin to increase, especially over the northwest, late in the day Saturday. A weak occlusion being pulled through by low pressure in northern Quebec will then bring showers late Saturday night. Sunday will remain mostly cloudy in the occlusion with showers and, in some areas, a thunderstorm. The NAM is suggesting a layer of cool air near the surface will limit instability. The GFS, However, has capes up to 200-400 J/KG. The best chance for any thunder will likely be in the central highlands and western areas with low level cool air limiting convection across eastern parts of the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure building in from the west will bring a mostly sunny day on Monday. The sky may be partly sunny over the far north where cool air at 6K ft produces cumulus. This will be followed by a mostly clear and cool night Monday night. Low pressure lifting north of the Great Lakes on Tuesday will pull a warm front north into the area. This will bring increasing clouds Tuesday. Some showers and perhaps elevated convection thunderstorms may stray into western areas late in the day. Showers, and perhaps thunderstorms in central areas, will slide through Tuesday night. Upper level ridging may then bring a break on Wednesday as upper level ridging pushes back over the area. The humidity may increase as the low continues to lift up to our west bringing a southerly breeze. Showers from the low may return Thursday with increasingly humid air over the region. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions through the remainder of the afternoon. Rain will begin to spread across the terminals from west to east. Conditions are expected to deteriorate to IFR vicinity KBGR/KBHB 02z - 04z time frame. MVFR conditions will initially develop at the northern terminals around midnight, with a period of IFR likely in lowering ceilings. There is an outside shot of an isolated lightning strike toward KBGR/KBHB after midnight, but confidence too low to include in TAF at this time. Rain will begin wind down after sunrise Friday, giving way to a few lingering showers by midday. MVFR/IFR conditions early Friday morning give way to VFR by midday. North winds could gust to close to 25 kt on Friday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday. Conditions will likely lower to IFR Saturday night into early Sunday morning then become MVFR to VFR for the remainder of Sunday. VFR conditions will return late Sunday night with VFR conditions expected Monday into midday Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will gradually increase to SCA levels late tonight. There may be a brief break in the winds early Friday morning, but winds are expected to once again increase to SCA levels in the wake of departing Maritimes low Friday afternoon. Visibility is expected to decrease to 1 to 3 NM in rain this evening and into Friday morning, then improve Friday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to be below SCA through the weekend although a few gusts may approach 25kt from the south on Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Duda/Bloomer Marine...Duda/Bloomer