706 
FXUS63 KFSD 231046
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
546 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Fairly quiet weather in the near term as surface ridge moves across 
the eastern Dakotas.  Cloud will be somewhat stubborn today, 
especially north of I-90 keeping temperatures down a bit.  Further 
to the south, where breaks in the clouds will develop, have highs 
just slightly below a full 850 mb mixout.

Warm front approaches from the south through the overnight hours 
tonight. South of the front, strong low level jet draws 
moisture/instability northward. Atmosphere remains fairly stable 
until moisture increases in the 750 to 800 mb layer, and expected 
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on the nose of the 
low level jet.  Despite great shear, instability remains limited to 
a few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE, so expect storms to remain 
below severe limits. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Moisture remains near 800 mb across northwest Iowa into southwest 
Minnesota on Friday leading to a weakly unstable atmosphere.  Have 
lingering pops through the morning into the early afternoon hours, 
but should see a nice temperature recovery to the west as gusty 
southwest winds develop. 

Fairly pleasant weather expected Saturday and much of Sunday with 
seasonal temperatures and fairly light winds.  However, as an upper 
trough organizes across the western US, expect rain to move back 
into the region Sunday night.  Models are in fairly good agreement 
that leading shortwave will approach from the southwest. With 
veering wind profiles, and steep lapse rates, could see a strong 
storm or two, but instability looks to remain fairly limited.  

Additional rounds of storms are possible through the first half of 
the week as the upper low breaks into pieces with various 
disturbances passing through the upper Midwest every 12-18 hours. 
Details are still a bit unclear, but this will be a period to watch 
with active weather in the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Occasional MVFR ceilings at KHON and KFSD through mid morning,
otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the
day. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop tonight, with
lowering ceilings late.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...JM