803 FXUS62 KFFC 230604 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 200 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 .UPDATE... Well it took some stout instability parameters to get activity going, but 3000 J/KG CAPE seemed to do the trick on the east side. The east coast seabreeze provided some additional help to produce mainly garden variety storms although there was one isolated strong cell. Have extended the isolated pops in the grids another few hours given current trends. Otherwise, forecast is on track with no additional changes planned. && Deese && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 745 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/... Obviously the primary feature impacting the region through the short term forecast period remains the strong upper ridging and warm temperatures. Just enough moisture and instability hanging around the northern and eastern periphery of the forecast area to keep a mention of at least isolated diurnal convection. This is being aided, at least to some small degree, by a weak backdoor front in the east this afternoon, and possibly by a glancing blow from a weak short wave sweeping into the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic coastal region on the downhill side of the ridge Thursday afternoon. 20 LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Hot and dry is really all there is to say about the extended forecast. The strong upper ridge will be in full force at the onset of the extended period with near-record or record 500mb heights for the month of May. As such, temperatures will be warming well into the mid-to-upper 90s Friday and continue to gradually warm into Memorial Day weekend. Widespread upper 90s to lower 100s can be expected into Memorial Day and beyond as the Southeast ridge hangs firm. All-time record May highs will thus still be in play. The "good" news is forecast heat indices are running below Heat Advisory criteria despite the very warm air temperatures courtesy of afternoon dewpoints dipping in the upper 50s to near 60. Regardless, it will still feel quite hot, especially for late May. While the upper ridge will flatten a bit into early next week, there is little sign of any significant pattern change. While the GFS does bring a front into the area late next week, the ECMWF holds the ridge firm through the coming week. Given the difficulty of breaking such an entrenched ridge, am inclined to believe the ECMWF. For reference, the all-time record highs for May follow directly below, and the daily records are in the Climate section below. All-time record highs for May: Atlanta: 97 degrees F in 1914 and 1941 Athens: 100 degrees F in 1918 and 1926 Columbus: 100 degrees F in 1916 and 1937 Macon: 99 degrees F in 1898, 1953, and 1967 RW CLIMATE... Records for 05-22 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KATL 94 1941 48 1883 70 1996 43 1883 1938 1941 KAHN 99 1941 57 1967 70 1983 45 1993 KCSG 99 1933 69 1967 74 1902 45 1954 KMCN 97 1962 66 1967 71 1987 43 1993 1898 1983 Records for 05-23 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 99 1941 57 1967 69 1953 45 2002 KATL 95 1941 56 1967 71 1941 40 1883 KCSG 99 1933 59 1967 73 1983 49 1954 1915 KMCN 98 1956 56 1967 72 1938 42 2002 1941 1915 Records for 05-24 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KMCN 97 1960 65 1899 73 2000 46 1931 KAHN 96 1912 65 1966 71 1998 42 1931 KATL 95 1996 60 1895 72 2000 45 1892 KCSG 99 1933 73 1977 74 1996 47 1892 1933 Records for 05-25 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 100 1926 65 1979 71 2004 46 2013 1956 1979 KCSG 98 1912 71 1979 75 2000 51 1979 1956 1931 KMCN 97 2000 65 1923 74 2000 49 2013 1960 1979 1953 KATL 93 1960 63 1895 72 2004 46 1979 1953 1953 Records for 05-26 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 99 1911 63 1963 72 2004 41 1979 KATL 94 1936 64 1923 73 1989 43 1979 1916 1901 1911 KCSG 98 1933 75 1961 74 2000 47 1979 1906 1989 KMCN 98 1962 69 1901 72 1921 49 1979 Records for 05-27 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 97 1916 70 1997 71 1991 40 1961 1961 KATL 95 1916 62 1901 75 1916 41 1961 KCSG 98 1916 65 1901 76 2012 45 1961 1911 KMCN 99 1953 67 1901 74 1991 45 1961 1953 Records for 05-28 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 97 1914 65 1997 71 2004 43 1925 1934 1982 1916 KATL 94 1941 63 1997 72 1991 42 1961 1915 KCSG 100 1916 68 1997 79 1911 43 1961 KMCN 99 1967 63 1934 74 1991 46 1961 1924 AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR conditions to continue through this TAF cycle. Will keep VCSH for this afternoon for northern TAF sites given backdoor front sagging into the area. Winds SE this morning becoming SW after 15z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... High on all elements...except medium to high on wind direction. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 91 69 95 / 20 10 10 0 Atlanta 70 92 70 93 / 5 20 10 5 Blairsville 62 86 63 88 / 10 20 10 10 Cartersville 68 93 69 93 / 5 20 10 5 Columbus 70 95 71 97 / 5 10 0 0 Gainesville 67 90 68 92 / 20 20 10 5 Macon 68 94 69 96 / 10 10 0 0 Rome 67 93 68 94 / 5 10 10 5 Peachtree City 67 93 68 94 / 5 10 10 5 Vidalia 70 94 71 97 / 5 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Deese LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...41