550 FXUS64 KFWD 221640 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1140 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019 .UPDATE... Only minor tweaks were made to the current forecast for the rest of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows an extensive area of cumulus across the region trapped beneath a stout capping inversion as indicated by a special 16Z sounding. Moisture extends to around 850 mb and there is still some low potential for isolated showers beneath this capping inversion. There are a few more breaks than earlier anticipated in the cloud cover this morning, so we have nudged high temperatures up a couple of degrees. Later this afternoon, there is a very low chance that an isolated thunderstorm could develop across our far northwest counties. Latest RAP guidance and water vapor imagery indicates the presence of a weak embedded shortwave which will spread into southern Oklahoma by 21Z. While this feature will likely provide some ascent, strong height rises and strong capping will likely inhibit deep convection in our area. We'll maintain a 10% PoP across our far northwest counties into the early evening hours. Otherwise, highs should top out in the mid/upper 80s with perhaps a few low 90s out west. Dunn && .AVIATION... /Issued 722 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019/ /12Z TAFs/ Breezy south flow. Prolonged nocturnal/morning MVFR stratus. The 12Z RAOB from FWD travelled through a layer of 40-kt winds around FL030, showing that, despite a healthy number of scatterers, the VWP continues to overestimated the strength of the low-level jet (LLJ). Nonetheless, a period of low-level wind shear is still necessary until the nocturnal boundary layer erodes and this momentum is distributed through a greater depth. This will increase the surface winds, which will remain breezy the next several days. In the meantime, this LLJ will continue to agitate a building stratus deck, preventing the thin layer from completely filling in. Additional moist advection will eventual help the cloud deck to become more uniform. Occasional IFR ceilings will accompany the diurnal temperature minimum of the surface layer, but ceilings will steadily climb as the May sun bakes the ground. A capping inversion delay the erosion of the stratus, and the 12Z package maintains MVFR into the afternoon. The cycle of nocturnal stratus will continue into the upcoming weekend. Dryline activity may impact the northwest arrival corridor the next few days. Although the storms may be in vicinity of the Bowie cornerpost, the activity should remain outside the D10 TRACON. 25 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 418 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ In the wake of Tuesday's rain event, a Pacific front scoured out the boundary layer moisture, clearing the skies. This effectively eliminated our semi-permanent springtime moisture discontinuity, known in these parts as the dryline. But as we find ourselves in the latter stages of the spring season, we knew the dry air was not going to stick around. Rich Gulf moisture remained across the coastal plains, and the return of southerly winds has allowed it to make a rapid return to North and Central Texas. The 60-degree isodrosotherm reached the Metroplex during the predawn hours, and dew points north of 70F have already invaded our southeastern zones. Much more vigorous advection is occurring above the nocturnal boundary layer where VWP data is estimating 50kts at 2-4kft AGL. As a result, low clouds will continue developing and spreading further inland through daybreak. Despite the intensity of the advection, the thin layer is unlikely to produce any sprinkles or drizzle, and the momentum within the surface layer should preclude any fog. However, some brief reductions in visibility will be possible in Central and East Texas during the diurnal minimum of wind speed (predawn hours through sunrise). The surging mT air will meet the seasonal cT air of West Texas, re-establishing and steadily sharpening the dryline on the high terrain to our west. A healthy inversion above the cloud layer will slow its erosion east of the boundary, but breaks of sun will gradually become more numerous into the afternoon hours. Although it's only May 22, our sun angle today will be the same as on July 20 or 21. Beyond the need for sunscreen, this emphasizes the power of the insolation this time of year; and even with the extensive cloud cover and moisture-laden surface layer, temperatures should still manage to exceed seasonal normals this afternoon. MLCAPE values will soar above 4000 J/kg, but with the surface boundary well to our west and no large-scale forcing for ascent, this instability will likely go unrealized. Toward peak heating, the convergence along the dryline may allow for a few cells to develop near or within our northwestern zones, but these should remain isolated and would have a tendency to race north across the Red River, limiting their duration within North Texas. Regardless, any storms that are able to develop would have initiated from incredibly unstable boundary layer parcels and would quickly become severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates would enhance the potential for large hail, and the resulting precip-loading would yield an attendant damaging wind threat. Any outflow boundaries could encourage additional development that may linger into the evening hours, but it's unlikely than any cells would reach areas as far southeast as the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. 25 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 418 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019/ /Thursday Onward/ The extended forecast will feature the onset of an early summertime feel with warm temperatures, high humidity, and limited rain chances. The potential for widespread rainfall or any strong/severe storms appears minimal through early next week. While the anomalous upper low responsible for several days of widespread thunderstorms across the Plains lifts northward through midweek, another deep upper trough will develop across the western half of the country by Thursday. Across the east, a building Bermuda High will place Texas between these two features within deep southwesterly flow. For Thursday and Friday this will mean morning stratus intrusions followed by high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s with breezy southerly winds. The combination of warm temperatures and high dewpoints will yield afternoon heat index values in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. This pattern will also be favorable for dryline convection far to our west during the peak heating hours. All of this convection should largely remain west or northwest of the forecast area as the influence of the upper ridge along with diurnally-increasing CIN causes activity to weaken as it moves eastward. Will continue to only mention some low storm chances across our northwestern zones late Thursday into Friday when some of this decaying activity could impinge on North Texas. Otherwise, the extent of the precipitation potential throughout this time will lie with perhaps a couple warm advection showers just about anywhere in the forecast area, although no more than a silent 10% PoP seems warranted. Similar conditions are generally expected over the weekend and into early next week with limited rain chances and highs in the neighborhood of 90 degrees. Additional thunderstorms look likely to our west and northwest, with once again only a limited chance for convection to be maintained within our CWA. The next question mark in the forecast is a possible breakdown of the ridge early in the coming week, as the upper low, which will have been parked over the southwestern states for several days, finally begins to advance east or northeast. One possibility is an eastward retreat of the high which would allow the trough to encroach on the Southern Plains and deliver a decent shot of showers and storms around midweek. The other solution would be an east-west elongation of the ridge while the shortwave energy lifts northeast along its periphery, leaving us mostly warm and dry. Will only show some low rain chances in North Texas during the midweek time frame at this juncture without a clear signal for any widespread precipitation through the extended. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 74 89 73 89 / 5 5 5 5 10 Waco 89 75 90 73 89 / 5 5 5 5 5 Paris 86 72 87 69 87 / 5 5 5 5 5 Denton 86 73 88 72 88 / 5 10 5 10 10 McKinney 86 74 88 72 88 / 5 5 5 5 10 Dallas 88 75 90 73 89 / 5 5 5 5 10 Terrell 87 74 90 71 90 / 0 5 5 5 5 Corsicana 88 74 89 71 89 / 0 5 5 5 5 Temple 91 74 90 73 88 / 5 5 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 87 73 89 70 87 / 5 10 5 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 91