615 FXUS61 KBGM 221507 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1107 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Partly sunny skies today will give way to increasing clouds and scattered showers tonight. A line of thunderstorms, some possibly severe with strong winds and hail, will move through central New York and northeast Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon. Quiet but cooler weather then returns for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 11 AM Update...Mostly sunny skies east and partly cloudy west, with high clouds slowly advancing east this afternoon. The daytime hours today will stay dry, but then a weak wave along an advancing warm front will push into the area later this evening into the overnight. This will bring a round of showers to the area, and a rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out overnight. Northeasterly or variable winds this morning turn southeast, then southerly later today and tonight. Winds increase between 7-15 mph tonight, with a few higher gusts. Pleasant and seasonable temperatures today with highs 65-75. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 50s. Previous Discussion Below The upper level ridge axis will extend across West-Central NY this afternoon, yielding another mostly sunny day. With building heights, temperatures should push into the upper-60s to lower- 70s. A warm front will push through the Great Lakes tonight and set off scattered rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across NY and PA. Temperatures will bottom out in the 50s. Low level drying should allow skies to break out to at least partly sunny on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. ML CAPE values are progged around 800-1200 j/kg during the afternoon, while a mid-level jet is forecast to move through NY/PA and enhance shear profiles. Bulk shear values (0-6 km) could eclipse 60 kts across most of the forecast area by Thursday afternoon. Good low level turning is expected with the NAM12 forecast SR Helicity values in excess of 300 m2/s2. This combination of shear and instability favors supercells and strong bowing line segments. At this point, we are forecasting strong convection to reach the Central Southern Tier between 1 PM and 4 PM and the I-81 corridor between 3 PM and 6 PM. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 3 AM update... Though one set of storms quickly exits Thursday evening, main concern in the short term period will be prospects for another round Saturday afternoon-evening. There will not be much left to convection upon sunset Thursday, though a few quick moving final cells may still exist briefly generally east of I-81. We will spend most of the Thursday night in post-frontal cold air advection, which will continue via somewhat gusty northwest winds into Friday. After lows of 50s Thursday night, highs will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s for Friday. That is about 8-12 degrees lower than the prior day. High pressure will quickly scoot across the area Friday night with lows of upper 40s-lower 50s, and a partly cloudy sky; meanwhile aloft a ridge will build. Then on Saturday, the upper level ridge axis will already lean offshore, exposing us to yet another incoming wave. Some model disagreement exists for how long it takes for resultant showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area, but generally speaking Saturday afternoon through evening at this time appears the most likely. With brisk flow aloft, this may be a repeat concern for gusty winds mixing down within thunderstorms. However, the bigger question remains if enough instability can be generated to realize stronger convection. Anyone with outdoor plans this holiday weekend should continue to monitor the forecast for updates on this potential. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 300 AM Update... Active weather pattern continues, as successive northern stream waves beat down the upper high located to our south. Timing out those individual smaller waves this far out is fairly difficult, thus showers and/or thunder cannot be totally ruled out most days even though much of the time will be dry. Model consensus right now points to late Monday night through daytime Tuesday as the most likely dry window of the period. After highs of lower 70s to lower 80s Sunday, temperatures will dip just a touch to be close to climatology for late May as we head into Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through the next 24 hours. Clouds will gradually increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching storm system, then rain showers will develop and spread across the terminals after 05z Thursday. The showers are expected to be non-restrictive. Outlook... Thursday...Brief restrictions possible in showers or thunderstorms. Friday...VFR. Saturday...Restrictions possible in afternoon showers or thunderstorms. SUNDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP/MJM NEAR TERM...DJP/MJM SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MJM/MDP AVIATION...DJP