799 FXUS61 KBGM 211030 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 630 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry air will continue to filter into NY and PA today and tonight. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching warm front will bring milder temperatures to the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cooler and drier air will continue to spread into NY and PA Tuesday, generating clear skies and fair weather. Temperatures will rise into the upper-50s and lower-60s with gusty winds out of the west. Winds will go light and variable Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop into the 40s. After a clear and cool night, winds will become more southerly Wednesday ahead of an approaching warm front. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper-60s and lower-70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 320 am update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the chance of light rain showers Wed night/Thur morning and then a round of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday with dry conditions expected Friday. Upper level ridge axis will transition through the area Wednesday night but with a weak stationary front floating west to east through NY triggering a few light rain showers across the region until about sunrise. Should be a break in the precip during the rest of Thursday morning before another fast-moving upper short wave and associated surface front track west to east through the region later in the day Thursday into Thursday night. There may be a modest amt of instability and shear to produce some thunderstorms during this time. Rising heights behind the departing upper wave on Friday should produce quiet weather through most of the day. Cannot rule out a few light rain showers to the north due to a cooler nw flow combined with some residual moisture from the most recent system. Temperatures remain on the mild to warm side Thur and Fri with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 320 am update... High pressure should be in control Friday night, but slowly shifting off to the east by early Saturday morning. The quiet weather under an upper level ridge will be replace by the next round of showers and storms Saturday and Sat night. Weather conditions remain slightly unsettled Sunday and into early next week with a quasi- zonal/slightly cyclonic flow and a series of weak upper waves passing by during this time. This pattern will keep a chance of afternoon/evening showers in the forecast through Monday. Temperatures remain steady with high in the 70s...and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Except for a brief period of MFVR ceilings early this morning at KRME under a departing stratus deck, VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Westerly winds at 10 to 15 knots will gust around 20 knots today. Winds will become light and variable Tuesday night. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR with high pressure. Thursday...Brief restrictions possible in showers or thunderstorms. Friday...VFR. Saturday...Restrictions possible in afternoon showers or thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...DJP