021 
FXUS63 KLMK 202332
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
732 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Dry and pleasant weather will continue tonight as high pressure over 
Gitche Gumee noses all the way south into the Ohio Valley. However, 
as the sfc high makes its way east toward Whitefish Bay on Tuesday, 
sfc winds will clock around to the east and southerly mid-level flow 
will bring increasing clouds into our westernmost counties as early 
as daybreak. 

Warm advection showers could break out from the Pennyrile up through 
the Wabash Valley, but should stay far enough west that we can stick 
with a dry forecast through the day in spite of plenty of cloud 
cover. Warm front will start to pull muggy tropical air into south-
central Kentucky in the afternoon, resulting in a fairly wide range 
in max temps. Look for a range from the lower 70s in the northern 
Bluegrass region to mid 80s along the Tennessee border.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Tuesday Night - Wednesday... 

A weakening convective line will be moving out of MO Tuesday night 
as an upper low slides back to the northern Plains. The line will 
weaken as it moves east as it encounters drier air and loses low 
level jet influx. This will bring slight chances for showers and 
storms Wednesday morning, mainly west of I-65. Redevelopment will be 
possible Wednesday afternoon along any leftover outflow boundaries, 
keeping isolated showers/storms possible during the day. 

Thursday - Monday...

The upper-level ridge looks to build back in over the Southeast US 
by Thursday and stay in place through the remainder of the forecast 
period. This will bring hot and mainly dry conditions across the 
area. Temperatures look to reach into the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s 
each day. With >593m heights over GA/FL with ridge axis over 
CWA...Low 90s looks feasible especially Thursday and Friday. Heat 
indices will not be as bad you might think due to dew points only in 
the mid 60s.  

The GFS and CMC hint at a couple of weak shortwaves moving over the 
top edge of the ridge during this time period, so will carry slight 
chance of POPs Thursday and Friday, mainly in southern IN and 
northern KY.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 730 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Mostly a wind forecast as wind direction will veer from NW to E 
overnight into Tuesday morning and afternoon. A low level jet begins 
to edge into our western forecast area by Tuesday morning, affecting 
HNB first with easterly winds gusting into the low 20kt range. Gusty 
winds will pick up at SDF and LEX by the afternoon hours. Short 
range models depict some showers moving into the area Tuesday 
morning but soundings show dry low and mid levels, so think this 
will yield mostly VIRGA for much of the morning and afternoon hours. 
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...JDG/JML
Aviation...CG