484 
FXUS65 KFGZ 202126
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
226 PM MST Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of rain and high elevation snow as well as
isolated thunderstorms will continue across northern Arizona
through this evening. Mainly dry and windy conditions will
develop Tuesday. Another low is forecast to impact the area
Wednesday and Thursday with more cold, wet and windy weather.
Dry, breezy, and cool conditions are forecast Friday and Saturday 
with unsettled weather returning Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm to continue
through this evening as a unreasonably cold upper low moves across
northern Arizona. Snow levels should be above 6500 feet with only
trace accumulations expected. We have had several reports of pea 
to dime sized hail today, and one videotaped tornado occurring 
near Cameron. 

From Tuesday through Sunday - Progs are in good agreement with 
the upper air pattern affecting northern Arizona. On Tuesday, a 
wind Advisory has been issued for much of the northland due to 
the approach of a cold front and upper low. Southwest wind 
gusts from 40 to 55 mph are expected by late morning for areas 
along and north of the Mogollon rim as well as the yavapai County 
mountains. Otherwise dry weather is forecast with afternoon temps 
much warmer than today. On Wednesday, the next low pressure system
will begin to generate precipitation, primarily across Coconino 
and Yavapai counties. Snow levels will be in the 6,500-7,500 ft. 
range. Rain amounts should remain less than a quarter of an inch 
with only light snow accumulations expected. On Thursday, kept the
low chances for light showers, but we should be transitioning to 
dry weather by late in the day. For Friday and Saturday, dry 
weather with breezy afternoons is in store due to light southwest 
flow aloft. High and low temperatures will be on a warming trend, 
but still around 5 degrees below normal for the dates.

For Sunday and Monday - Model discontinuity is increasing for
these days. We do see another closed low moving into the desert
southwest during this time, and we do have a slight chance of
showers spreading from northwest to southeast through this period.  





&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Southwest winds at 10-20G20-30 kts 
through 06Z Tues. Winds remain breezy northeast of high terrain 
overnight. Widespread showers and storms will continue through the 
evening. Snow showers are possible along the high terrain above 6000 
ft. Showers and storms will gradually clear west to east lingering 
through the evening east of a line from Payson to Kayenta. Expect 
gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR conditions 
possible near showers and thunderstorms.  Gusty southwest winds 
return Tuesday with gusts 40 to 55 mph possible. Aviation discussion 
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers, mountain snow, and scattered thunderstorms 
will continue through this evening. Snow levels are around 6500-
7000ft. On Tuesday, expect a chance for showers and thunderstorms 
mainly along the UT/AZ border. Expect strong southwest winds in the 
afternoon with gusts 40-55 mph.  

Thursday through Saturday...Expect below normal temperatures, gusty 
afternoon winds and additional chances of precipitation Thursday. 
Drier conditions will return Friday through Saturday with cool 
temperatures persisting.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ004>017-
038>040.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...ET


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff