654 FXUS63 KFGF 201527 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1027 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Not much change in the mid morning forecast update. Increased high temps a degree or two in the northern Red River Valley, still looking to stay below 70 degrees here though. Overall pretty awesome day outside today if you like sunshine, mild temps, and light winds. UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Morning lows ranging from around 30 deg north of Devils Lake to around 38 deg vcnty Thief River Falls and across Richland county. Area of stubborn clouds kept portions of northwestern MN and far northeastern ND in the mid to upper 30s, where as the Devils Lake basin and east central ND had temperatures drop to near freezing. Overall do expect some areas of frost reported this morning although not so much around the Grand Forks area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 A chilly start to Monday morning will result in widespread frost (frost advisory in effect) but temperatures should rise quickly with sunrise. An upper level ridge over the area and surface high pressure to the north will result in light easterly-southeasterly winds with plenty of sunshine to help afternoon highs reach into the 60s. A beautiful day to start the week will end quickly, with the remainder of the week seeing several rounds of showers as ridge/trough couplets translate across the area in the SW flow aloft. The most significant weather on Tuesday will be winds across southeastern North Dakota as a deep adiabatic layer taps into 35 to 40 kt winds near the top of the mixed layer vcnty of H775 to H800. Expect windy conditions from Valley City into southeastern North Dakota as well as the southern valley. Light rain showers will approach the ND/SD state line by late in the day Tuesday, however the brunt of the precipitation will begin early in the long term period. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 The extended time frame begins with the next system in the active southwest flow aloft bringing widespread rainfall as closed low pressure system lifts north from the central plains Tuesday night. Expecting an east to west oriented band of rainfall to lift north across the area Tuesday night in association with WAA and 700mb Omega. Then during the day Wednesday the upper low lifts into central ND bringing another round of showers to the area. Widespread rainfall totals are ranging from around 0.25" in the far north to 1" to 1.5" in the south. A break in the active pattern is set for Thursday with another potent system expected to bring rains Thursday night into Friday. Ensemble solns bring the heaviest rainfall to the Devils Lake basin with around an inch and elsewhere around a half inch. The evolution of this second system remains in flux with low confidence in placement and rain amounts given the time frame of being 5 days out. Temps for the week will remain on the cool side of normal with 50s and 60s for highs. Normal high temps for this time of May are in the low 70s. The chance for frost this week is low as lows appear to be 40 or better all week as clouds and mixing keep temps up. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 VFR with light, easterly winds. Winds will shift northeast and increase significantly in velocity by mid-morning Tuesday, with mid-level clouds moving into southeastern ND tonight as rain showers spread north out of South Dakota. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...Speicher