031 FXUS64 KMOB 201508 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1008 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. && .UPDATE... Surface high pressure positioned over the Deep South this morning will slowly shift east today. Upper level ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico will gradually build northeast during the day and this should help to suppress the overall coverage of mainly afternoon convection. High resolution CAM guidance does still generate some isolated convection, especially along a developing sea breeze circulation that will advance inland as strong inland heating continues through the day. Regional 12z soundings suggest little in the way of capping, but a subsidence inversion should develop with time with the building ridge aloft. Overall will keep pops capped below 20 percent through the afternoon considering all of the forecast factors expected. All of the morning fog has mixed out and broken morning stratus has also scattered. Hot and humid conditions are expected with high temperatures expected to range from the middle 80s along the coast to lower 90s inland. Dewpoints should remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon, making conditions feel uncomfortable with long outdoor exposure. Overall the forecast looks good and only made minor adjustments to remove morning pops and fog. JLH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 12Z issuance...Some patchy fog and low clouds over the area will dissipate shortly after issuance time leaving VFR conditions. Light and variable winds at the beginning of the period become southeast to south 5 to 10 knots today, then returns to a light and variable flow tonight. Patchy fog is expected to develop again late tonight. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/ .NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...A shortwave trof currently over the area moves off to the east this morning followed by an upper ridge building over the region this afternoon into tonight. A surface low well north of the region brings a rather weak frontal boundary (really just a wind shift) southward into central Alabama this morning which lingers into the afternoon. A surface ridge currently extending along the northern Gulf coast shifts into the northern Gulf in response. With the aid of a modest sea breeze circulation, this pattern sets up a weak low level convergent zone mainly during the afternoon hours. The modest subsidence may prove strong enough to suppress convective development today, but per coordination have opted to keep in slight chance pops for possible development with the weak low level convergent zone/sea breeze. The wet microburst potential today is low. Highs today near the coast will be in the mid/upper 80s and mainly around 90 elsewhere. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast. Will continue with a high risk of rip currents today due to a continuing spring tide, onshore swell 2 ft / 6 sec, and onshore flow up to 10 knots. A moderate risk of rip currents follows for tonight as the swell is expected to subside. /29 .SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...An upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS through the short term as the flow pattern aloft becomes more amplified. Strong subsidence beneath this ridge will keep skies mostly clear over the local area through the period. High surface pressure builds over the region as well, which results in a diffuse pressure gradient and light surface winds that will be primarily driven by diurnal mesoscale processes (e.g. land/sea circulations). Temps begin a gradual warming trend as highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Lows stay in the mid to upper 60s inland and closer to 70 along the coast each night. /49 .LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Both the upper-level and surface ridge axes move little through the long term, continuing our dry weather and hot temperatures through the remainder of the work week and straight into next weekend. Highs reach the upper 80s and low 90s along the coast and mid to upper 90s inland each afternoon. Some inland locations could approach 100 degrees by the weekend. Lows stay in the upper 60s to low 70s each night. /49 .MARINE...A light to occasionally moderate southerly flow is expected through Friday. Seas will be generally 2 to 3 feet. /29 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob