484 FXUS63 KFGF 200817 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 317 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 A chilly start to Monday morning will result in widespread frost (frost advisory in effect) but temperatures should rise quickly with sunrise. An upper level ridge over the area and surface high pressure to the north will result in light easterly-southeasterly winds with plenty of sunshine to help afternoon highs reach into the 60s. A beautiful day to start the week will end quickly, with the remainder of the week seeing several rounds of showers as ridge/trough couplets translate across the area in the SW flow aloft. The most significant weather on Tuesday will be winds across southeastern North Dakota as a deep adiabatic layer taps into 35 to 40 kt winds near the top of the mixed layer vcnty of H775 to H800. Expect windy conditions from Valley City into southeastern North Dakota as well as the southern valley. Light rain showers will approach the ND/SD state line by late in the day Tuesday, however the brunt of the precipitation will begin early in the long term period. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 The extended time frame begins with the next system in the active southwest flow aloft bringing widespread rainfall as closed low pressure system lifts north from the central plains Tuesday night. Expecting an east to west oriented band of rainfall to lift north across the area Tuesday night in association with WAA and 700mb Omega. Then during the day Wednesday the upper low lifts into central ND bringing another round of showers to the area. Widespread rainfall totals are ranging from around 0.25" in the far north to 1" to 1.5" in the south. A break in the active pattern is set for Thursday with another potent system expected to bring rains Thursday night into Friday. Ensemble solns bring the heaviest rainfall to the Devils Lake basin with around an inch and elsewhere around a half inch. The evolution of this second system remains in flux with low confidence in placement and rain amounts given the time frame of being 5 days out. Temps for the week will remain on the cool side of normal with 50s and 60s for highs. Normal high temps for this time of May are in the low 70s. The chance for frost this week is low as lows appear to be 40 or better all week as clouds and mixing keep temps up. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Persistent high clouds remain in place across the area tonight with gradual clearing expected. VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites with SKC developing by mid-morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...Lynch