987 
FXUS64 KSHV 200110
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
810 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings continue across much of the region this evening,
however, showers and thunderstorms have developed along a cold
front located along a line from KELD to TYR. This could result in
some tempo MVFR/IFR conditions. Still expecting cigs to become
MVFR overnight and possibly IFR across some locations around 
daybreak. Conditions to gradually improve to VFR by 20/17Z. 
Otherwise, light and variable winds across TYR/GGG/LFK/SHV/TXK and
south winds around 5 to 10 knots across MLU/ELD this evening, with
higher gusts near storms. Winds will become east at 5 knots 
overnight and southeast at 10 to 15 knots and gusty on Monday. 

/20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/
Progressive pattern to continue during the short term with
southerly flow returning areawide, allowing for a return of gulf
moisture ahead of next storm system that will move across the
ArkLaTex on Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary across the region
will be the source for scattered afternoon convection on Monday.
Front is forecast to lift north during the afternoon allowing for
gusty southerly winds areawide along with temperatures forecast to
climb into the upper 80s along and south of I-20. 

Complicated weather pattern unfolding for Monday afternoon and
evening as convection is forecast to develop along the retreating
warm front across the Red River Valley. Severe thunderstorms are 
expected across mainly north Texas and central Oklahoma with a few
possibly spilling into Eastern Oklahoma late in the evening. /05/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/

Perusing the big picture of the NRN hemisphere this Sunday 
afternoon, all forecast model solutions continue to forecast a 
strong omega blocking ridge developing over the ERN Pacific Ocean 
off the W Coast.  Accordingly, a deep long wave trough forecasts to 
remain quasistationary over the desert SW on the front side of the 
aforementioned ridge into the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday
afternoon as a vertically stacked surface and upper-low translate
east across the central CONUS. Ongoing linear band of convection
during the morning to move into an unstable airmass across the
ArkLaTex on Tuesday afternoon during the time of peak heating, 
allowing for thunderstorms to increase in intensity with a 
damaging wind threat possible.

This pattern is also favorable for heavy rainfall across the 
central U.S. The pattern becomes quite amplified for late May as a
594 dekameter ridge develops at 500 HPa over the SE U.S after 
midweek. This ridge is then forecast to slowly retrograde W along 
the Gulf Coast through next weekend. This ridge should suppress 
TSTM activity and give us a welcome period of dry weather from the
middle of next week through much of the upcoming holiday weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  86  73  87 /  10  20  10  30 
MLU  71  87  72  89 /  10  20  10  10 
DEQ  63  83  70  80 /  10  30  20  80 
TXK  67  84  71  82 /  10  20  10  70 
ELD  69  84  71  86 /  10  20  10  20 
TYR  71  87  72  82 /  10  20  20  60 
GGG  72  87  73  84 /  10  20  10  60 
LFK  75  89  73  86 /  10  20  10  30 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20