940 FXUS62 KTAE 191855 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 255 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Line of showers and thunderstorms across MS and LA will continue to push east and south this afternoon. With the weakening trend, much of the activity will diminish before reaching the CWA and have only included low end PoPs across the far west for tonight. Low temperatures tonight will continue above average with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Fog is expected again tonight, generally across southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and the western Big Bend. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... With a boundary across the area and increase low level moisture across the western portion of the CWA tomorrow, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible. After that, as the upper ridge strengthens, the area will remain dry through the remainder of the short term. With the strengthening ridge, temperatures will increase with highs in the low to mid 90s by Tuesday. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Deep layer ridging will strengthen during the long term with the center of the 500mb ridge near the CWA. This will result in hot and dry conditions through the long term. Expect highs to climb into the upper 90s to around 100 for the weekend. This heat will be the main story for the forecast period and with the upcoming holiday weekend and potential prolonged period of heat, it is important to review and follow heat safety tips (weather.gov/safety/heat). With these temperatures the record highs will be near record or record breaking. Some areas will even be in the running to reach 100 degrees. For TLH, the record high is 100 (24th-26th) and it's possible this will be tied. The last official 100 degree days (measured at each airport) for the following areas are as follows: Dothan, AL: July 1, 2012 Valdosta, GA: August 23, 2014 Panama City, FL: August 26, 2014 Tallahassee, FL: August 23, 2016 Albany, GA: June 25, 2018 && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions expected through the day though we can't rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorm at a terminal this afternoon. Another round of patchy fog and low cigs is possible overnight from 08z to 14z Monday morning. The best chance for fog will be west of VLD and ABY. This is where IFR (LIFR in the heavier patches) restrictions to vis/cigs are possible overnight at TLH, DHN, and ECP. && .MARINE... Expect winds of 15 knots or less through the week with seas of 1-3 feet. While there is an isolated chance of a shower/thunderstorm tomorrow across the western near shore waters, chances are low and for the rest of the week, dry conditions are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... A large ridge of high pressure will begin to build across the region on Monday. This will keep the region hot and dry through this week. Though relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, an extensive period of hot and dry conditions could increase fire danger potential. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts tomorrow will be limited with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast. There are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 92 67 94 67 / 10 10 0 0 0 Panama City 71 85 71 86 71 / 10 20 10 0 0 Dothan 67 90 69 91 67 / 10 20 10 0 0 Albany 67 92 69 94 70 / 10 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 66 93 67 95 68 / 10 0 0 10 0 Cross City 65 92 67 93 68 / 10 10 10 10 0 Apalachicola 71 85 70 87 70 / 10 10 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Fieux SHORT TERM...Fieux LONG TERM...Fieux AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Fieux FIRE WEATHER...Godsey HYDROLOGY...Fieux