965 FXUS61 KCLE 181618 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1218 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary across central Ohio will lift northward today as a strong warm front. Low pressure will track out of the Plains on Sunday, crossing the Central Great Lakes Sunday night and pulling a cold front east across the area. High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes late Monday into Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Only minor tweaks for this afternoon with this midday update. Updated winds with current warm frontal position and increased gusts for Sunday with upwards of 40 MPH or so possible. Previous discussion follows. Morning showers are now across far northeast OH/nw PA and will be exiting the area over the next couple/few hours. Made minor adjustments to precip chance for this afternoon. Basically most have at least a slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm to pop up this afternoon especially with the warm front in the process of lifting northward. Warmed temperatures by a couple of degrees from Marion to Mt Vernon as mid 80s should be reachable. Cooler lakeshore is still good with the front south of these areas until late in the day/after dark. Previous discussion follows. A stalled out frontal boundary was currently located west to east from west central Ohio through central Ohio into far southwest Pennsylvania this morning. This boundary is slowly lifting northward as a warm front later this morning. Most of the showers on radar is just north of the retreating boundary. We haven't seen any lightning associated with these showers but can't rule out an isolated rumble of thunder or two this morning. Otherwise, light to moderate brief showers can be expected across northern Ohio this morning with a gradual decrease in coverage around or after sunrise this morning. The warm front will surge northward to the lakeshore by late morning. The boundary may slow down or stall again for a brief time over the lake near just north of the lakeshore. South of the boundary will scattered out the clouds and warm temperatures up into the upper 70s to lower 80s, especially warmer for areas closer to central Ohio this afternoon. The boundary finally pushes northward across the lake overnight tonight with everyone seeing a mild evening. There may be enough daytime instability for an isolated shower or storm to pop in the warm sector across Ohio today but confidence and coverage will be low. Tonight will be just fair skies and quiet. Southerly winds will increase 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible ahead of the next front and storm system. Clouds will increase on Sunday and showers and storms will become increasingly likely from west to east late in the day. It will be another warm, springlike day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins Sunday night with models showing a cold front moving east across the area. Much of the activity will likely be with a prefrontal trough across the eastern half of the area at 00Z. Will have likely pops east to start. Still however the cold front may have development as well. Instability is greatest with the front and models do develop precip with the boundary so will keep high chance pops from the central counties west to KTOL and KFDY through the evening. After midnight will scale back pops to chance east and slight chance far west. Will keep thunder mentioned after midnight east but will just have showers west. High pressure and dry air will build in for Monday. Wrap around moisture associated with the upper low will move east across the Great Lakes and may dip south enough for a few showers far northeast but for now will just go with a slight chance pop in the morning. Expecting a dry Tuesday as the high moves across Lake Erie and low pressure strengthens in the Central Plains. Will bring in chance pops for Tuesday night after midnight as deep moisture out of the glfmx region moving north ahead of the low moves into the area from the west. Monday, highs will reach from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Tuesday highs near 60 north to the upper 60s south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday will have chance pops as a warm front lifts north across the region. Moisture will be sufficient and afternoon li's drop to - 4 to -6C, so there should be enough energy for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. In general Wednesday through Saturday, an upper high will be centered over the Gulf Coast with broad anticyclonic flow across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Have chance pops for much of the period as convection which will develop in the central Plains moves east across the top of the upper ridge into northern Ohio. On balance though, Wednesday through Saturday should be a nice period with highs in the 70s and a few 80s south. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... A warm front is lifting northward across northern Ohio this morning. Ceilings are VFR to marginal MVFR at a couple locations near the boundary. As the warm front moves onto Lake Erie this afternoon, skies will become fair or partly cloudy over much of northern Ohio. Will mention VCSH this morning for all of Ohio TAF locations but not expecting much in the way of impacts. Have included a couple hours of TEMPO for brief 6sm showers to impact the airports from 12z to 15z. As the warm front lifts north later today, winds will become southerly 8 to 12 knots. There could be a few gusts up to 17 to 20 knots over western Ohio in the flatter terrain. OUTLOOK...Some non-VFR possible Sunday evening into Monday morning in showers and thunderstorms. Addition non-VFR possible mid week. && .MARINE... High pressure across eastern Ontario and low pressure in the Northern Plains turning winds east on Lake Erie today at roughly 15 knots. With water level so high to start, this will send levels rising on the western basin. Expect levels to approach 6 feet above low water datum today, likely ranging between 65 and 70 inches. For now will issue a lakeshore flood watch and continue to monitor. Tonight a warm front moves north across the lake turning winds southerly. Winds will increase out of the southwest Sunday as low pressure moves into southern Wisconsin. Winds should get to around 20 knots especially west half. Highest waves will be offshore however winds may be enough to issue a small craft advisory. Sunday night the low will move northeast across the central lakes dragging a cold front across Lake Erie. Winds will turn more westerly by Monday morning forcing the higher waves into the nearshore waters especially central and east. Waves will likely be enough for a small craft advisory from late Sunday night through Monday. Winds and waves will remain below headline levels Tuesday and Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Lakeshore Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003- 007>009. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin/Oudeman SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...TK