078 FXUS64 KSJT 160849 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 349 AM CDT Thu May 16 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tomorrow) We start yet another morning with low clouds and patchy fog for much of Concho Valley and northwest Hill Country. Like clockwork, low clouds are expected to clear out by mid to late morning with adequate thermal and mechanical mixing. By this afternoon, southerly winds should increase and some gusts may reach close to 20 miles an hour in some locations. A 500mb ridge axis will be parked right over West Central Texas and 850mb temperatures around 15 degrees C, high temperatures today should easily reach the mid to upper 80s again. Tonight, the pattern should finally begin to change as a deep trough digs into the Intermountain West. A few shortwave impulses will pass into west Texas overnight, helping to generate a few showers and thunderstorms over the Trans-Pecos area. The best chances for rain will be after midnight across the western Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau. Otherwise, southerly winds should remain increased overnight, holding low temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. With the persistent moisture, another round of low clouds is expected early Friday morning, especially along the I-10 corridor. SK .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) ...Thunderstorms likely with severe weather possible Friday night... As has been advertised repeatedly over the past few days, we continue to expect a round of thunderstorms to affect west-central Texas Friday night into Saturday. At this time it appears there will be two different rounds of thunderstorms, one episode of isolated to scattered storms during the late afternoon and evening, and a much more widespread event late Friday night. For late Friday afternoon, the dryline will mix east to along or just west of our forecast area. Where heating can overcome capping, possibly over higher terrain just east of the Davis Mountains, thunderstorms may develop. These storms are expected to move northeast into our western counties, where they will encounter the capped atmosphere and likely dissipate. However, they would be capable of producing severe weather before they dissipated. Then later Friday night, broader lift from shortwave energy will move into the area as the upper level trough continues its eastward movement toward the central/southern plains. Coincident with the lift, a Pacific cold front will move east across west Texas providing a focus for thunderstorms to develop off of. Expect initial individual thunderstorms to grow into one long, or segmented squall line as the front moves east through the area. With models continuing to show 0-6km shear values greater than 40 knots, and surface and mixed layer CAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, these storms will be capable of producing severe weather as they move east across the area Friday night. Although the main concerns will be large hail and damaging winds, embedded circulations could produce isolated tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding. Thunderstorms will eventually move east and out of the area by Saturday evening. Sunday should be dry with warm temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Confidence is growing in another round of thunderstorms for the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Although there is still disagreement with respect the path of the parent upper level low that will help spawn these storms, both models produce rainfall over the area Monday night. Should these storms develop, there would be another chance for severe weather as well, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes again possible. Quieter weather is expected from Tuesday night through Thursday next week, with high temperatures possibly warming into the 90s in some locations. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 86 67 84 66 / 0 5 10 80 San Angelo 87 67 86 65 / 0 10 10 80 Junction 86 67 84 67 / 0 10 5 60 Brownwood 84 66 82 66 / 0 5 10 60 Sweetwater 85 68 85 65 / 0 10 20 80 Ozona 83 66 82 64 / 0 20 10 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$