141 FXUS64 KLUB 152330 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 630 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019 .AVIATION... VFR and dry with modest low level southerly low level flow is expected to continue through the next 24 hours. A few lingering showers once again in eastern New Mexico and the far northwest Texas Panhandle are weaker than last evenings activity and have a more easterly trajectory besides. These are expected to mostly dissipate by sunset and not affect the terminals. A real fly in the ointment, however, could be patchy low clouds forming early Thursday over the southern part of the Pecos Divide mainly near or west of KHOB. A small area of low clouds formed in this vicinity early this morning and mostly dissipated while lifting north and mixing out about 45 miles southwest of KLBB. Solutions are indicating the low clouds early Thursday may be a bit more extensive and thus would have a slightly better chance of affecting the KLBB and KPVW terminals near and just after daybreak Thursday. Will watch trends and may add if confidence improves. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019/ DISCUSSION... Upper level ridging is having the expected effect this afternoon as temperatures are warm and cumulus is limited in areal and vertical extent. Thursday should offer similar conditions as the upper level ridge completes its migration to the east of the region Thursday evening. This timing could allow a thunderstorm or two that develops on the high terrain of southern New Mexico to make it just over the state line into the forecast area before dissipating. The focus then shifts to the potential for thunderstorms, some likely severe, as well as the possibility for some heavy rain Friday afternoon through Friday night as a closed low ejects from the Great Basin with a negatively tilted upper trough progged to sweep eastward across New Mexico toward the southern High Plains. Models are in good agreement with the evolution of the upper system and are in reasonably good agreement with the evolution of low level features. This scenario continues to favor areas east of a Silverton to Brownfield line for storm chances in line with previous forecasts. Some lingering showers early Saturday across the far eastern counties should be swept quickly eastward as the upper low moves over the central High Plains and dry west winds develop across the forecast area. After a brief period of upper level short wave ridging on Sunday brings another quiet day to the forecast area another upper low is progged to develop across the intermountain West. There are some similarities to Friday's weathermaker insofar as a closed low or negatively-tilted trough ejecting out of Colorado/New Mexico into an area of potentially favorable low level moisture, although the smaller time between this system and Friday night's probably will limit the quality of the low level moisture available. Still, the setup continues to look reasonable, again favoring the eastern half or so of the forecast where precip chances have been bumped up some in this forecast package. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/05