533 
FXUS64 KSHV 150454
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1154 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 15/06z TAFs, VFR flight condition will continue to prevail
areawide for the duration of this TAF cycle. Some scattered
daytime cu can be expected across the area on Wednesday. Winds
will generally remain light and variable at the start of the
period before becoming southerly or southwesterly after daybreak.
Wind speeds should remain less than 10 kts.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019/ 

UPDATE...
Overall, the going forecast appears largely on track. No updates
are anticipated this evening.

CN

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Tue May 14 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/

Mostly sunny skies across the region this aftn with isold cu 
diminishing by eve and cirrus clouds over central TX struggling to
move eastward. Decent radiation cooling with mostly lgt and vrbl
winds again, although dewpoints a tad higher tonight mainly mid to
upper 50s. Overnight lows either side of 60 degrees. Similar
conditions on Wed with lgt but more organized low lvl sw flow and
highs reaching mid to upper 80s as upper ridge slowly shifts east
of MS river valley. The presence of increased upper lvl clouds 
Wed night will keep most overnight lows above 60 degrees, with a 
few mid 60s readings possible./07/.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday night/

On Thursday, an upper level ridge will be centered just to our west 
while high pressure at the surface will be centered over the 
Southeast US.  The surface high will shift a little further east 
allowing more moisture to return to the area for the end of the 
week. There could be some isolated convection Friday afternoon and 
evening for our southern zones, almost like a pseudo-sea breeze. 
Saturday afternoon and evening is still looking like the best 
scenario for severe weather, for our western zones, as we could see 
some discrete cells ahead of the main line of convection. There will 
be an abundance of deep layer moisture, adequate instability, and 
sufficient low-level shear to enable all modes of severe weather. 
Heavy rainfall will likely be a threat, but the progressive nature 
of the system may limit its impact. The better dynamics move away 
from the region as we progress into Sunday, so the overall severe 
threat goes down and will likely be marginal as we progress further 
into the weekend. Another shortwave will move through the Four State 
area late in the period bringing a low chance of  for the 
beginning of next week.

High temperatures will continuously, ever so slightly, increase 
through the forecast period. Low temperatures will start out in the 
low to mid 60's on Thursday and will end up in the lower 70s area-
wide by the end of the period. /35/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0 
MLU  60  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  59  87  61  85 /   0   0   0   0 
TXK  63  87  63  86 /   0   0   0   0 
ELD  60  89  63  87 /   0   0   0   0 
TYR  63  86  63  84 /   0   0   0  10 
GGG  62  87  63  85 /   0   0   0  10 
LFK  63  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/13