614 FXUS61 KCLE 142344 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 744 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build east across the region tonight into Wednesday. A weak cold front will drop across the area Wednesday night. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night, bringing a cold front south which will become stationary across the southern Great Lakes into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Update...No changes for the update. Original...Finally, a brief period of dry weather is expected across the area tonight into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. Skies will be on a clearing trend through the night, with lows dropping into the low to mid 40s across the area. A couple of weak systems will take aim at the area late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a weak mid level wave tracking southeast from the western Great Lakes into the Ohio valley, and a more potent mid/upper wave and attendant surface front sinking southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon/night. The weak front will track through the area quickly around/after 00Z, which may be enough to force some showers across the area in combination with the western wave. Have some general slight chance pops in the afternoon across the area, with some higher chance pops across NE OH and NW PA closer to the better forcing from 00Z-06Z. There should be appreciable drying after 06Z as the front moves out of the area. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 60s northeast to the low/mid 70s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night will be in the low 50s northeast to the upper 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast period begins on Thursday with high pressure back over the Ohio Valley. This area of high pressure will move southeast as a weak low enters the Great Lakes region on Thursday night and remain over the area through Friday. Will have a dry forecast for Thursday with high pressure and then fairly generic chance PoPs for Thursday night and beyond as convection appears scattered with the system. Have some areas with chance thunder, but the diurnal timing of the system appears off to have widespread thunder chances. Temperatures will be seasonable through the period with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure returns to the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Deepening low pressure over the central CONUS on Sunday will move eastward and extend a warm front across the area on Sunday and then force a cold front through the area on Monday. For Saturday and the first half of Sunday, will keep a mostly dry forecast for the area with slight chance PoPs at worst as the region awaits for the low pressure system. Have chance PoPs for Sunday night and Monday with the low pressure system and the fronts and will keep generic chance PoPs for the area on Tuesday with some uncertainty for the next system. Temperatures this weekend appear warm with 14 to 16C at 850mb over the area, which will translate to temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will cool a bit into the 70s behind the cold front on Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... High pressure will slowly drift across the region tonight into Wednesday, with VFR conditions expected. A cold front will approach the region from the north late Tuesday possibly bringing showers to the KERI region near the end of the period. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday and again Thursday night through Saturday morning. && .MARINE... A fairly benign pattern appears to set up on Lake Erie for the rest of this week and into the weekend. High pressure will nudge into the Ohio Valley tonight into Wednesday and bring lighter flow to the lake. Flow will increase on Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front enters the area and southwest flow will get to 20 knots and waves on the east end may get to 3 or 4 feet. High pressure returns on Thursday and flow will lighten again on the lake. Another cold front will enter the basin on Friday and flow will increase out of the south ahead of the front before shifting around to the west. Southerly flow will get to 15 or 20 knots or so ahead of the front, but the weakening nature of the front will keep the westerly flow fairly light. High pressure returns to the region this weekend and light southerly flow will return to the area. Winds will increase out of the south on Sunday with a warm front. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/TK SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...TK MARINE...Greenawalt