837 
FXUS65 KFGZ 141012
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
312 AM MST Tue May 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect warm daytime temperatures with just a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Look for dry weather 
with increasing southwest winds Wednesday, and especially 
Thursday when winds could gust up to 45 mph. Cooler and unsettled
weather returns for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the
week with afternoon highs a few degrees above normal. There is
just enough moisture remaining for some isolated high-based
showers or thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains this afternoon. A few of these will drift
north toward Winslow and St Johns due to the steering flow. Drier
air will end rain chances on Wednesday. Southwest breezes will
also pick up as a large trough approaches the west coast.

The trough and cold front will move into the region Thursday with
temperatures falling back to near normal. Southwest winds of 25 
to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph appear likely. A few showers 
or thunderstorms are possible by late in the day and continuing 
through Friday. Even cooler temperatures are forecast Friday, with
afternoon highs 10-15 degrees below normal.

Saturday through Monday - latest guidance shows that we will be
in between systems on Saturday though it remains cool. Yet another
even colder trough is likely to affect the region later Sunday
into Monday. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast from
around Flagstaff northward. Extended range models and guidance
from CPC indicate that unsettled and cool weather is favored well
beyond the 7 day period, including most if not all of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Widely scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain 18Z-02Z. A brief 
period of MVFR conditions and gusty winds may occur in the strongest 
storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will bring warm temperatures and light 
winds today. A chance of showers remains possible over the high 
terrain mainly near the White Mountain Region. Southwest winds will 
increase Wednesday with dry conditions.

Thursday through Saturday...A passing low pressure system on 
Thursday and Friday will bring gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and 
shower chances. Dry conditions return Saturday with cool 
temperatures remaining.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff