036 FXUS63 KICT 140833 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 333 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019 Today-tonight: Ongoing storms are expected to linger past 1200 UTC in southeast KS, but will be on the wane this morning. Still a bit unclear whether any additional storms will develop late this afternoon/ tonight as weak 850MB boundary drops into central KS this afternoon and then becomes increasingly diffuse. Better chances will likely be northeast of forecast area with moisture gradient and weaker cap. Highs today will be much warmer as 850MB temperatures continue to increase. Wednesday-Thursday: Tentatively going dry during this period as upper ridge and warmer temperatures aloft suppress convection. Highs will be well above normal with winds on the increase. Did go a bit warmer Thursday and Thursday night based on stronger winds and synoptic pattern verification. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019 Medium range models have come into a bit better agreement, although convective details are still far from certain. Friday will put forecast area in the warm sector ahead of expanding western US longwave. Would anticipate storms to develop on dryline and roll east Friday night. Both ECMWF and GFS show extensive precipitation throughout the day on Saturday with moist axis across the forecast area. Model QPF would suggest potential for an inch or so. If the widespread precipitation does occur as models forecast, it would likely diminish severe threat in the afternoon and evening. At best would be most likely in far southwest sections, closer to dry slot working northeast. Precipitation continues Saturday night as upper low approaches and deep south flow pumps copious moisture into the area. Another 1-2 inches of rain would be possible. Wave departs by Sunday with dry downslope flow looking increasingly likely. Sunday night and Monday a bit less certain as moisture starts to return northwest and dryline sets up somewhere in western KS for Monday. Monday could be bigger severe threat, especially if precipitation does not develop during the day (per ECMWF). At least with tonights model runs, the weekend/Monday the severe threat appears to be a bit lower, but the flooding threat is higher. -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue May 14 2019 Isold TSRA developed ~03Z from just SW of KHUT to around KWLD. The TSRA have been movg SE ~25kts & will affect KICT til ~06Z. There's the potential for renewed TSRA development thru ~10Z as low-level jet becomes more assertive. As such have kept TSRA mentioned in the KICT TAF til ~10Z. Isold TSRA may encroach upon KCNU 09-10Z & as such have kept "VCTS" assigned to the terminal 10-13Z. There are no concerns from 13Z onward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 86 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 86 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 85 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 85 60 85 63 / 10 0 10 0 Winfield-KWLD 86 60 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 Russell 88 59 88 62 / 0 0 10 10 Great Bend 87 58 88 62 / 0 0 10 10 Salina 87 59 85 64 / 0 10 10 0 McPherson 86 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 85 61 86 64 / 30 10 10 10 Chanute 84 60 85 63 / 20 10 10 10 Iola 84 60 85 63 / 20 10 10 10 Parsons-KPPF 84 61 86 64 / 30 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...EPS