990 FXUS61 KBGM 131956 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 356 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper level low will pass through the region on Tuesday, bringing a continuation of cool and showery weather. Wednesday will be warmer with scattered showers during the afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tonight...A strong mid level wave will continue moving through the region this evening. As this feature lifts northeast of the area the steady rain will end in the central and southern forecast area with more persistent rains continuing across the north. Upper level low will move into the local area overnight keeping the threat for more showers even across the southern forecast area. Late tonight temperatures at H85 will drop to -2C and with surface temperatures in the higher elevations of the western Catskills in the mid 30s a rain/snow mix is likely. A few tenths of snow will be possible on grassy surfaces. Overnight lows will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Tuesday...Upper level low will gradually move to eastern New York by late day. Mid level short waves rotating around this feature during the late morning and afternoon period will bring the best chance for showers to areas east of I81. The lowest POPs will be advertised across northeast Pennsylvania and the central southern tier. Another cool day with highs in the mid 40s to around 50. Tuesday night...Upper level low finally lifts into coastal New England and loses its influence on our weather. After some scattered evening rain showers primarily in the eastern areas the overnight period will be dry. Lows will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEDNESDAY...A brief lull in the showery weather is expected early Wednesday as an upper level storm moves toward Nova Scotia. A wave sliding into NW NY will bring a chance for a shower Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures will peak in the 60s on Wednesday and fall into the middle-40s overnight. THURSDAY...A nearly stationary front extending down from Eastern Canada will keep the threat for widely scattered showers over NY and PA Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures will once again rise into the 60s Thursday, then fall into the 40s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Heights will gradually build during the long term period as an eastern seaboard trough slides away from the region and a new trough digs into the western CONUS. In general, the weather will be much more spring-like than we've experienced lately. Moisture riding out of the Plains and Ohio Valley will keep a chance for a shower in our forecast each day. In addition, multiple weak waves will slide down from a Great Lakes ridge and affect our region. Temperatures will climb from the middle-60s on Friday into the middle or upper-70s Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 130 Pm update... Steady rain across most of central NY and NE PA is leading to MVFR and fuel alternate vsbys and cigs. Conditions will continue to worsen through 21z with cigs continuing to drop into fuel alternate and IFR, then mainly IFR cigs are expected overnight with IFR and fuel alternate vsbys. Slight improvement in cigs and vsbys after 12z Tuesday with lingering rain mainly across the north-central NY and ELM, BGM, and AVP seeing some lingering shower activity. Generally IFR to fuel alternate cigs and MVFR vsbys from 12-18z. East to southeast winds at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon drop back to 3-5kts after 21z. Turning variable at times Tuesday morning, then turn to the west to northwest at 5-10kts after 12z Tuesday for most sites. SYR and RME will continue to see light southeast winds through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday...Restrictions in rain. Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Wednesday night/Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers. Thursday night/Friday...Primarily VFR. Friday night/Saturday...Restrictions possible in showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...HLC