667 FXUS64 KAMA 131928 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 228 PM CDT Mon May 13 2019 .SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Wednesday... A midlevel low pressure system at h5 currently working its way over far southwest Texas will continue to propagate east. Perturbations in the northern flow aloft caused by this system may introduce some isolated thundershowers in the northern third of the CWA this afternoon into tonight. North to northwest flow aloft will continue into Tuesday as this system moves into eastern Texas where it will weaken and become an open trough at h5 late in the day. On Tuesday, surface winds will be light mostly out of the south making for downslope winds. Mostly clear skies will allow for plenty of insolation as well, allowing for daytime highs to reach the mid to upper 80s tomorrow. Late Tuesday night model guidance is hinting at some isolated showers in the far northwest CWA from little perturbations in the northwest flow aloft. Have left PoPs out of the forecast for now as confidence is low. A few isolated showers may need to be added later, if confidence increases. Wednesday will be another warm day with slightly strong downsloping winds as well as being centered more under the h5 ridge that will be building in. Temperatures may be a couple more degrees warmer than Tuesday but still looking at mid to upper 80s for most of the area. 36 && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday... Upper level ridging moves eastward, leaving the Panhandles in southwest flow aloft as the next closed low moves on shore Thursday into northern California. Long range models have huge discrepancies with how to handle this system. The GFS takes a very northerly track with the low into the northern Great Plains on Friday while the ECMWF take the low far to the south and bowling balls it towards the Panhandles. This discrepancy creates 2 different solutions for what the weather will be for the area. If the GFS plays out, we would be dry with sunshine and nearing 90 degrees for a high in Amarillo. If the ECMWF wins out, the area could see thunderstorms which may be severe with a high temp 10 to 15 degrees cooler due to the clouds and precip. For now, will keep a low chance for precip until the solutions show more convergence. Beat && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 52 83 56 86 59 / 5 0 0 5 5 Beaver OK 54 88 56 89 61 / 20 10 5 5 5 Boise City OK 50 85 53 86 56 / 20 10 5 10 5 Borger TX 54 87 60 88 61 / 10 0 0 5 5 Boys Ranch TX 51 86 55 88 58 / 5 0 0 5 5 Canyon TX 51 84 56 87 58 / 5 0 0 5 5 Clarendon TX 54 82 57 86 59 / 5 0 0 5 5 Dalhart TX 49 84 53 87 56 / 10 5 5 5 5 Guymon OK 52 87 55 89 59 / 20 5 5 5 5 Hereford TX 50 84 54 87 57 / 5 0 0 5 5 Lipscomb TX 55 87 57 88 61 / 20 5 5 5 5 Pampa TX 53 84 56 85 59 / 10 0 0 5 5 Shamrock TX 54 83 58 87 60 / 10 0 0 5 5 Wellington TX 55 84 59 88 59 / 5 0 0 0 5 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 36/16