294 FXUS62 KFFC 131146 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 746 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019 .UPDATE... 12z Aviation update below. Baker && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... Have some lingering low end pops for any convection that could still trigger along the cold front as it pushes across the southeastern half of the CWA early this morning. Still some conditional instability present so cannot rule out the isolated thunderstorm potential but should be primarily a few showers. By noon the front and any precip chances should have exited the far southeast and the regime will remain quiet and ridge dominated through the rest of the period. Tonight will feel rather unseasonable with the cool/dry airmass in place and many locations dipping down to the upper 40s/low 50s. Tuesday should be sunny and afternoon temps limited to the low to mid 70s for most areas. Baker && .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/... To begin the extended period, the eastern CONUS will be on the back side of a deep longwave trough moving eastward off the Atlantic Coast. Deep northwesterly flow along with strong surface high pressure over the region will continue to promote cool and dry conditions on Wednesday. Wednesday's temperatures will be 3-5 degrees below climatological averages, with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s, and highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. An upper-level disturbance embedded within the flow will drop southeastward towards the forecast area on Wednesday, sending a weakening cold front towards north Georgia. Model guidance is still somewhat inconsistent with respect to timing, but is trending slower than earlier runs, bringing precipitation into northern Georgia by 18Z Wednesday. This front will continue to push southward through the area on Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms to mainly our northern tier. With limited moisture and weak forcing, currently only expecting slight chance to low-end chance PoPs, mainly focused across far north Georgia. As this frontal boundary pushes southward out of the area, an upper- level ridge will build into the area from the west. This persistent ridge will allow temperatures to gradually warm back to above average for this time of the year. Highs this weekend are anticipated to be 5-8 degrees above average, in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. A deep longwave trough will move into the northern High Plains this weekend which will further amplify the ridge over the southeast. While it is possible that there could be some diurnal convective activity leading to some isolated thunderstorms, there does not currently appear to be any definitive features to support any organized convection over the weekend. King && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Initial brief MVFR cigs possible for next hour or two then should lift/scatter today with some FEW/SCT cu field in the 4-5 kft range behind a departing cold front. NW winds today at 10-12 kts and low end gusts...then decrease slightly for tonight but still NW. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High on all elements. Baker && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 77 50 74 50 / 5 0 0 0 Atlanta 75 52 73 53 / 5 0 0 0 Blairsville 68 44 67 44 / 5 0 0 0 Cartersville 74 48 72 48 / 5 0 0 0 Columbus 80 54 77 54 / 5 0 0 0 Gainesville 73 50 71 51 / 5 0 0 0 Macon 81 53 77 52 / 20 0 0 0 Rome 75 48 73 48 / 5 5 0 0 Peachtree City 77 50 74 50 / 5 0 0 0 Vidalia 84 58 80 56 / 30 5 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baker LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Baker