415 
FXUS65 KFGZ 130325
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
825 PM MST Sun May 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Cloud cover and showers will decrease overnight.  
On Monday and Tuesday, rain chances will be primarily across the 
high terrain during the afternoons. Expect dry weather with 
increasing winds Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Storm and shower coverage will decrease overnight. Forecasts have
been updated per current radar and satellite trends. No 
additional updates are planned. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /302 PM MST/...An area of low pressure located
over southeastern Arizona/New Mexico continues to aid in shower
and thunderstorms development this afternoon mainly south of
I-40. So far, storms have remained mostly weak due to strongest
instability being just along our southern border and mainly to
the east of the best shear. Activity will diminish into the
evening with clouds gradually clearing out overnight.

For Monday and Tuesday, low will shift off to the east as high
pressure builds in over the desert southwest. Temperatures will
gradually warm each day through the midweek returning to near
normal. Have continued a slight chance for showers along the high
terrain through at least Tuesday as moisture is slow to leave.
Best chances for Monday and Tuesday will be in the White Mountain
region.

Warm and dry conditions continue Wednesday with breezy southwest
winds in the afternoon. By Thursday, the next low pressure system
begins to approach from the west bring an increase in afternoon
southwest winds across the area. Models seem to be in better
agreement on timing of the low passage late Thursday evening into
Friday bringing a chance for showers and storms mainly north of
I-40 Friday. Gusty southwest winds will be possible again Friday
afternoon mainly for areas along the eastern Mogollon Rim where
gusts to 35 to 40 mph possible by the afternoon. Differences still
lie in how deep the models take the trough which will play a role
in how far south showers develop so this is subject to change.
After this system passes, we return back to a dry westerly flow
aloft for Saturday and Sunday. Breezy west winds will be possible
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect mainly VFR conditions and 
light winds over the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain after 18Z Mon. A 
brief period of MVFR conditions and gusty winds may occur in the 
strongest storms. Any storm activity will diminish after 03Z Tue. 
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue on 
Monday afternoon mainly along the high terrain. Daytime temperatures 
will return to near normal values on Monday and Tuesday.

.Wednesday through Friday...Warm conditions and dry weather are 
expected Wednesday. A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest 
winds Thursday and Friday, along with a chance of precipitation 
mainly along the AZ/UT border.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL/RR
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff