363 FXUS62 KFFC 121141 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 741 AM EDT Sun May 12 2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 AM EDT Sun May 12 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... Low confidence pop fcst given some weak perturbations in SW flow aloft focusing some zones of enhanced showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front progged to push southward across the CWA this afternoon into evening. The main concern will be how much the environment can destabilize this afternoon as some guidance indicates an axis of 1500-2500 J/kg of possible attainable CAPE mainly in central GA but could also be along and south of Atlanta to Athens, which coincides with the general area covered by a Slight Risk from SPC. With some marginal deep layer shear, thinking main threat will be strong to damaging winds. Hail and localized flooding from heavy rain in efficient training storms are also possible. Cannot rule out a brief spin up tornado with some low end 0-1 km helicity ahead of the front, though threat is overall lower. Ridge builds in late today into Monday, so expect a pleasant Monday with clearing skies and enhanced NW gradient winds. Temps should be slightly cooler than normal with most locations in the low to mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s in central GA. Baker && .LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... Cooler and drier conditions will be in place to begin the extended period with the forecast area as nearly zonal flow aloft shifts to northwesterly and a strong surface high builds in over the southeastern CONUS. Temperatures will start out at around 3-6 degrees below climatological normals on Tuesday, with highs in mainly in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. An upper level shortwave traversing the upper level flow will send a weakening cold front southward into northern Georgia by late Wednesday. This front will continue to push southward through the area on Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms to mainly our northern tier. With limited moisture and weak forcing, currently only expecting slight chance to low-end chance PoPs on late Wednesday and Thursday. As this frontal boundary pushes southward out of the area, high pressure will build back in behind it. This high combined with deep northwesterly flow will promote a cooler and drier airmass in place over the forecast area during the latter parts of the week, with high and low temperatures running near climatological averages before gradually warming again next weekend. King && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Complicated forecast on tap but should have MVFR to IFR cigs build in for most sites this morning with some possible improvement after 15z, though could stay near MVFR at times through the afternoon until a cold front pushes southward. Periods of -SHRA through today and best chance of TSRA mainly 19-00z for northern sites though could have isolated sooner so have tempo from 15-19z (chance throughout the day in the south. Winds initially south to SW then SW to west this afternoon at 10-12 kts gusting up to 20 kts. Conditions improving from the north after 00z this evening. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Low to medium on precip coverage and overall cigs. High on all else. Baker && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 77 59 76 52 / 80 60 5 0 Atlanta 77 59 75 54 / 80 50 5 0 Blairsville 71 52 67 46 / 80 50 10 5 Cartersville 76 56 74 49 / 80 40 5 0 Columbus 81 62 80 56 / 80 50 10 0 Gainesville 75 57 73 51 / 80 50 5 0 Macon 82 62 80 54 / 70 60 10 0 Rome 77 55 74 49 / 80 30 5 5 Peachtree City 78 58 76 52 / 80 50 5 0 Vidalia 85 67 83 59 / 70 60 10 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baker LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Baker