903 FXUS63 KMPX 120904 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 404 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019 Early morning satellite revealed the center of the mid level low was rotating over far northeast Nebraska. Very little change with the expectation of this low, which will continue on a southeasterly course toward northern MO/western IL today, leaving a surface ridge across the local area, especially by this afternoon. A few showers remained across southwest MN early this morning, but those will dissipate as the main PV feature continues moving away from the area. Models continue to indicate a stripe of deeper moisture holding through much of the day across western MN, where mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers are still expected. These showers will again be diurnally driven, likely developing by late morning and falling apart by late afternoon. Farther east, some cu will develop during peak heating but most of the day partly cloudy skies can be expected. Despite the mid level low moving away, the main upper level ridge will remain well west of here, keeping the relatively cool airmass in place at the low levels, so highs will be cooler than normal but overall not a bad day with highs in the low 60s. In addition wind speeds up to 10 MPH this morning will be on the decline as weak surface ridging moves in, leading to light winds especially for eastern MN and western WI by this afternoon. Southerly flow develops in the low levels as the surface ridge slides to our east Monday, which will begin the expected warm up in the coming days. Winds will increase to around 10 MPH, with a few gusts up to 15 MPH during the day and temperatures could approach 70 by Monday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019 There's good news in the long term forecast period for those who've been waiting for flip flop weather; models are now trending toward stronger ridging and warmer temperatures toward the end of the upcoming week. In fact, guidance consensus is indicating the potential for highs in the 80s for Thursday and Friday, which would be the first time we've reached or eclipsed 80 degrees in about 8 months. There's fairly decent agreement between the ECMWF and GFS that a warm front will lift into the area in the Thursday-Friday time frame, leaving most of the area in the warm sector, but also susceptible to shower and thunderstorm development. Depending on where the front sets up strong storms could develop, with the pattern potentially conducive to severe weather and exacerbation of existing hydro conditions (as precipitable water values increase to 1.5 inches) on Friday/Saturday. Have increased highs and precip chances slightly, but it's too early to entirely buy in to the more amplified pattern. In the meantime as the ridge is building temperatures will gradually rise through the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. We could see weak ridge-riders spawn scattered showers, primarily on Tuesday, but overall nothing significant in the way of precipitation is expected until late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019 Upper low across southwest MN tonight will continue marching southeast through the day. MVFR ceilings are still anticipated overnight across western MN, but VFR conditions will persist to the east. Winds will remain out of the south-southeast. KMSP...VFR conditions to persist. Southeast winds through the period before going calm Sunday night. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts bcmg NW 10G20 kts. Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...SPD