180 FXUS63 KILX 110851 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 351 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019 1023 mb high pressure over nw lower MI and ridging into central IL has provided fair weather thru much of the night with cool temps in the 40s with light to calm winds. Mid level clouds had increased overnight across nw half of CWA. Latest CAMs are trending quicker increasing clouds this morning and quickly spreading rain showers ne over central IL during this morning with a disturbance ejecting ne from OK and the Ozarks. Models continue scattered rain showers tonight east of the IL river while more widespread rain showers to be southeast of CWA after sunset. Rainfall amounts average a tenth to quarter inch over central Il, with nw CWA less than a tenth inch and southeast IL ranging from a quarter to half inch of rain through this evening. Clouds and rain showers will keep cool highs in the mid to upper 50s, with Lawrenceville near 60F. Lows overnight in the mid in central IL and upper 40s in southeast IL. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019 A cutoff upper level low along the southern Alberta and Saskatchewan province line, to move into central/nw IL by sunset Sunday. This will keep mostly cloudy to overcast skies around along with isolated rain showers Sunday morning and scattered rain showers Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening over west central IL closer to upper level low. Cool highs Sunday in the upper 50s to near 60F. Cutoff upper level low tracks into the eastern Great Lakes by sunrise Monday, with isolated to scattered showers exiting east of IL late Sunday night. IL in a cool nw upper level flow on Monday with skies becoming mostly sunny and highs in the low to mid 60s. 500 mb heights increase on Tuesday and milder highs around 70F with a fair amount of sunshine. A northern stream short wave tracking se from the northern plains into the area during Tue night and Wed to returning chances of showers with chances of thunderstorms by Wed afternoon. Seasonable highs Wed of 70-75F despite mostly cloudy skies. Lingered chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms from I-72 south on Wed evening, then dry across CWA overnight Wed night and Thu as disturbance exits the area. Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s on Thu and low to mid 70s on Friday and dry weather continues another day. Upper level ridge builds eastward toward the MS river valley late next week and this blocking pattern would tend to keep central IL milder into next Saturday and most areas staying dry, with just low pops northern CWA Sat afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019 High clouds are increasing west of the Illinois River this evening, and this will be the general trend across central Illinois overnight. Expect a gradual lowering of ceilings as a storm system moves in on Saturday. Latest model guidance brings showers in a bit quicker and more widespread, and the TAF sites will have 4-5 hours of steady rain during the late morning and afternoon hours. While the rain will exit before 00Z, lower clouds will spread in from the east as low pressure moves up the Ohio Valley. MVFR conditions likely at KCMI/KDEC by 00Z, with some potential further west late in the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart