390 
FXUS63 KDMX 110151
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
851 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019

...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019

Fairly quiet weather over the weekend into next week with the 
main focus on the pair of light precipitation events Saturday 
into Sunday and then with warmer temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday.  

Tonight through the weekend...light precipitation to enter
far southern Iowa late tonight with a weak 500 mb shortwave 
riding the ridge as the surface high moves east. Very little
moisture and lift with this system, but soundings do suggest deep
enough moisture to maybe see some light showers as far north as 
Ames by Saturday morning. Nudged slight pops further north 
tomorrow morning to encompass the southern half of the CWA. Not 
anticipating much QPF, but cannot rule a few locations receiving 
0.01" by midday Saturday. The next system is a decent clipper 
system and associated cold front to push across the state Saturday
night into Sunday. Another high pop/low qpf scenario, but 
certainly much more widespread rain than tonight's system. Better 
forcing and more moisture to utilized into Sunday. The upper low 
and associated trough nearly stalls over Iowa on Sunday providing 
much cooler temperatures than previously anticipated. Thus, it'll 
be cloudy, a bit rainy, and cool for Mother's Day. 

Monday through Friday...High pressure builds into the region by
Monday and shifts east of the forecast area by Tuesday night.
Warmer temperatures begin to return by Monday and Tuesday. There
is a weak shortwave within the northwest flow aloft to bring
thunderstorm chances by Tuesday evening and then a cold front
through the region by Wednesday morning. The severe threat 
appears low or at least limited to western Iowa Tuesday. Some 
instability appears to increase Tuesday afternoon and even though 
low level shear is not great, there is a decent amount of 0-6km 
shear to help keep thunderstorms going if they develop. 

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/
Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019

Light rain, no thunder, becoming more likely to impact KOTM and
KDSM starting overnight tonight and lasting through Saturday
morning. Looking at possible MVFR CIGs at KOTM... KDSM close to
MVFR, but for now favored VFR. Will continue to monitor.

Winds above 10 KTS at KMCW and KFOD, probably KALO as well during
Saturday afternoon.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...Kotenberg