336 
FXUS64 KTSA 102316
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Clouds have already spread across much of eastern Oklahoma and
will continue to spread into northwest Arkansas this evening.
Ceilings should remain VFR until after midnight, when rain begins
across the area. Expect lowering ceilings and visibility overnight
in areas of rain, with MVFR/IFR ceilings likely through Saturday 
morning. Winds will stay light through the period. Lightning 
chance is too low to include in the forecast at this time. The 
best chance for isolated storms would be at KFSM/KMLC. The routine
TAF for KMLC will resume with this forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
After a rather chilly start to the day, (Tulsa came within a 
degree of tying the 110 year old record low of 41) temperatures
have remained well below normal in the 50s to lower 60s. The rest
of the day should remain dry, but expect increasing chances of
mainly light rain into the evening as the low-level jet increases
some. Better chances look to be across northeast OK through the
evening, with the higher PoPs translating east and southeast late
tonight. Have maintained the mention of isolated thunder south of
I-40, although elevated instability looks quite meager.

Light rain will be clearing early Saturday, with afternoon
temperatures remaining a good 10-15 degrees below normal. 

Warmer temperatures will return by Sunday and continue into next
week as mid-level heights gradually rise. A southern stream wave
will move through the southern Plains early next week, although
the better chances of significant rainfall should remain south of
the area. Still could see some scattered showers/thunderstorms
around Tuesday although chances look slim. Upper ridging builds by
late week, with highs returning to the 80s.

Next significant chance of convection should hold off until next 
weekend as a stronger upper low moves in the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  64  49  74 /  80  70  10  10 
FSM   53  68  53  75 /  60  80  20  10 
MLC   50  66  50  76 /  70  70  10  10 
BVO   47  62  46  74 /  80  50  10  10 
FYV   49  62  47  69 /  60  80  20  10 
BYV   49  60  47  69 /  60  80  20  10 
MKO   50  63  49  73 /  70  80  10  10 
MIO   47  61  47  71 /  80  80  10  10 
F10   49  63  49  74 /  80  70  10  10 
HHW   54  66  53  75 /  70  70  10  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....12
AVIATION.....06

CORFIDI