932 FXUS62 KTAE 101926 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 326 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently developing across the region. Activity will stay away from the beaches, but expect development to be focused along and ahead of the seabreeze this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that develop today are likely to slowly drift north and northeast through the day with activity becoming focused in SE AL and SW Georgia in the evening hours. Any remaining storms are expected to die off after late this evening with skies slowly clearing overnight. Some patchy fog is possible by Saturday morning, especially in locations that receive any rain this afternoon or tonight. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]... An anomalous upper level trough currently over California and northern Mexico is expected to propagate eastward through the next four days. The aforementioned anomalous trough and associated low height anomalies have aided in developing an abnormally strong southern jet across Mexico and the southeast states. This has allowed for the development of a quasi-stationary front and continuous convective disturbances to propagate across the southeast. These disturbances are expected to remain in the interior locations of our CWA where forcing will be greater through the next few days. Chances will increase for thunderstorms for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend areas as a cold front dips south Sunday night and Monday. The aforementioned jet is expected to continuously enhance mid to upper level shear across our region in the next few days. This will likely lead to a few isolated storms meeting severe thresholds each day. Congruently the upper level trough is expected to slide into our region increasing upper and mid-level lapse rates, which may lead to a few storms containing large hail as well. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The previously mentioned quasi-stationary boundary to our north will dip south on Monday. With increasing mid level lapse rates and dewpoints in the low 70s moderate instability will be in place. Although current forecast soundings don't show any low level veering of winds, speed shear is rather impressive with 30 kts of sfc-3km shear. Currently models keep the threat mainly along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend; however, a few isolated strong storms are possible into interior locations as well. Tuesday and beyond there is uncertainty as models differ on where the boundary stalls in the northern Gulf. The farther north the boundary stalls the chances will be greater for isolated storms to develop along our coastal regions. By Wednesday the models are in enough agreement that drier air will be in place as our winds shift to out of the north. Temperature-wise, highs will be in the upper 80s for the remainder of the week, but lows are expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s due to the previously mentioned drier air. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Saturday] Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently developing along and ahead of the seabreeze. MVFR conditions are possible in any thunderstorms and occasional IFR restrictions in the strongest storms. Any remaining showers will begin to die off after 00z tonight. Patchy fog is possible, especially in western terminals from ABY to TLH and west. Confidence is low but expect IFR/LIFR visibilities or cigs should fog develop over a terminal. && .MARINE... Winds will remain light out of the southeast through the weekend, where they are expected to shift southwesterly ahead of a cold front on Sunday. Behind the front winds will shift offshore and remain light during the beginning of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with relative humidity remaining above critical levels. Fog Potential and Other Remarks... Some patchy fog is expected Saturday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Through the next three days, WPC keeps our QPF under an inch for much of the region; however, with isolated and scattered convection expected across interior SW Georgia and SE Alabama for the next four days, locally higher amounts are possible. The threat for river and flash flooding remains low as any precipitation will be scattered in nature. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 88 71 87 69 / 10 30 10 60 40 Panama City 72 83 74 81 71 / 10 20 10 50 50 Dothan 68 86 70 83 65 / 10 40 20 70 30 Albany 70 88 70 85 67 / 40 50 30 70 30 Valdosta 69 89 70 86 69 / 40 30 20 50 40 Cross City 69 88 71 87 71 / 40 10 20 40 30 Apalachicola 73 82 74 82 72 / 10 10 10 50 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM...Bunker AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Bunker