838 FXUS64 KFWD 101550 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1050 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019 .UPDATE... Cloud cover will persist through the day for much of North and Central Texas, helping to keep our temperatures on the low side today. Given early and mid-morning trends, the expected high temperatures for several locations, especially across Central Texas and the northern Hill Country, have been lowered. Region-wide weak isentropic ascent will continue through much of the day, therefore, expended the forecasted region of showers to include all of North Texas the rest of today. Across Central Texas, weak instability may lead to a few isolated storms this afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected and overall rainfall amounts should remain low today. Hernandez && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 351 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ An unusually cool morning is in progress across North and Central Texas with temperatures in the upper 40s in some locations under cloudy skies behind yesterday's cold front. These temperatures are anywhere from 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. A large complex of showers and thunderstorms tied closely to the surface cold front has pushed off the southeast Texas coast over the last few hours leaving a large stratiform rain shield across a good chunk of east and southeast Texas. Some of this light rain may sneak into Anderson and Leon counties through the early morning, otherwise larger scale subsidence in the wake of the complex should keep things quiet for at least several hours this morning. Later this morning, low level flow atop the cool frontal layer will strengthen in response to an upstream impulse in the southwesterly flow. This should result in a slow increase in scattered showers mainly across the southern counties and spreading north through the day. We'll have some 20 PoPs south of I-20 through the morning, increasing to 40-50% by late afternoon and spreading northward. There will be enough instability for some thunder, but widespread strong thunderstorms are not expected today. By this evening as the weak upper disturbance gets closer, stronger forcing for ascent will spread into North Texas helping to enhance the already modest isentropic ascent ongoing across the area. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will become more numerous into the overnight hours and spread northeast into early Saturday morning. While instability will generally be weak, it will increase south of I-20. The left exit region of a 110 kt upper jet will also be spreading into South Texas during this time which could assist in allowing storms to attain more vigorous updrafts. While severe weather is not anticipated at this time, the strongest storms could certainly produce some small hail and frequent lightning through the overnight hours. Not everyone will see rain through tonight, and despite high PoPs, rainfall amounts will generally remain light over the next 12-24 hours. In addition to rain chances, gradual moistening of the shallow cool airmass will likely lead to areas of fog later this evening and tonight. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 351 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019/ /Saturday through Thursday/ Waterlogged North and Central Texas will encounter two more periods of precipitation in the long-term portion of the forecast. The first period covers Saturday, while the second one spans Monday night through Wednesday night. Fortunately, neither episode appears to offer as much rainfall as we saw earlier this week. Unfortunately, it may affect the recession of any current river flooding, and will certainly delay the drying process across the region. Areas of light to moderate rainfall should be ongoing across North Texas Saturday morning, as our next upstream shortwave transits the region. The models depict good isentropic upglide in the 900-600 mb layer of the atmosphere through the day Saturday, as a moist southwesterly flow aloft surmounts the cool northerly airstream persisting near the surface. Very modest amounts of elevated - and in a few spots, surface-based - CAPE are advertised across the area with this system, and thus some isolated thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday. Convection should be pretty sparse, however, and this will preclude any additional heavy rainfall across the forecast area, despite the fact that PW values will remain above normal. This precipitation should end from west to east across North Central Texas Saturday afternoon, as the forcing slides eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. With subtle mid-level ridging building across the region, Sunday and Monday will offer a welcome reprieve from the rain. We should see a fair amount of sunshine both days, though continued northeast-easterly low level flow and wet soils should hold daytime temperatures a bit below seasonal norms. Cloudiness and rain chances should ramp up Monday night into Tuesday as the upper low currently over California rotates eastward out of the Four Corners region into the Southern High Plains. This closed low will likely emerge over North Texas as a slow moving open wave that creeps across our area during the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe. Forcing for ascent and moisture transport are not all that impressive with this system, and neither the GFS nor the Euro appear very aggressive in their depiction of precipitation coverage or intensity. Maintained chance PoPs across the area through Wednesday night, with a lean toward higher values across Central Texas where both the forcing and the moisture are a bit higher. CAPE values, while high enough to warrant mention of scattered thunderstorms, are pretty limited, and low shear values should preclude any chance of severe weather during the mid- week period. Likewise, QPF totals next week should predominately stay under 1", curtailing any flash flooding concerns. Upper level ridging should (temporarily) reassert itself Thursday, which should bring this latest round of rainfall to an end over our eastern counties. Unfortunately, our semi-permanent western trough redevelops (and intensifies) just beyond this current forecast period, offering yet another good potential for shower and thunderstorm activity by next weekend. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /Issued 1108 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019/ /06 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Ceiling/visibility trends and SHRA potential. VFR has returned to just about all Metroplex TAFs with MVFR hanging tough---and likely to persist---at Waco. Easterly winds aloft should help to stave off the invasion of drier air from the northwest at Metroplex terminals Friday morning, though the exact onset for the return of MVFR a little uncertain. I am confident that by 15-16 UTC most if not all Metroplex TAFs will slip back into the MVFR category with cigs near or just above FL020. There still appears to be a strong enough signal that there will be a potential for VCSH at the Metroplex, but it has diminished some from the 00 UTC TAF package. As such, I'll only advertise a broad window of VCSH during the morning into the early afternoon hours on Friday at the Metroplex. The SHRA potential at Waco remains high enough to include in a TEMPO group during the morning hours. Given the richer moisture here...lower cigs should accompany any SHRA activity. Further north, should any SHRA impact a given Metroplex TAF...slightly reduced visibilities and lower MVFR cigs will be possible. Flying conditions are expected to deteriorate through the day on Friday and into Friday evening. IFR seems very likely at all terminals as lift from an approaching upper wave overspreads North and Central Texas. There will be a potential for another wave of drizzle and light rain showers and this will help to bring cigs down into the IFR category. Given the north winds reinforcing cooler air at the surface plus light precipitation...LIFR cigs/vsby are possible. However, it is too early to include such a pessimistic forecast in the extended portions of the TAF at this juncture. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 55 71 56 77 / 30 70 60 5 0 Waco 60 54 71 56 76 / 50 70 50 5 5 Paris 62 55 69 53 75 / 20 70 80 10 0 Denton 61 53 70 53 76 / 30 70 60 5 0 McKinney 62 54 70 54 76 / 30 70 70 5 0 Dallas 63 55 71 56 77 / 30 70 60 5 0 Terrell 63 56 73 55 77 / 40 70 70 10 0 Corsicana 62 56 72 56 75 / 40 70 70 10 5 Temple 60 54 72 56 76 / 50 70 50 5 5 Mineral Wells 61 53 68 51 75 / 40 70 40 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 08