257 
FXUS64 KSJT 100958
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
458 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Rain Potential Returns...

The potential for more rain, across West Central Texas, headlines
the short term forecast. With southwest flow aloft, over West
Central Texas, dominating for the today and tonight periods, minor
disturbances in that flow may initiate showers and thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has all of West Central Texas in a
"general thunderstorm" outlook area. This looks reasonable, given
limited upper support. So, the likelihood of severe thunderstorms
appears low, for today and tonight. Plus, model data indicate
showers will likely dominate.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

...Continued Rain Potential...

The potential for rain remains the highlight of the long term.
Models continue a more or less southwest flow pattern aloft over
Texas through this weekend. The rain potential does take a dip 
Saturday night into Sunday, as a weak short-wave ridge briefly 
develops aloft, over West Texas. But, this temporary convection 
inhibitor will cycle through the upper pattern, and southwest flow
aloft again dominates late this weekend into the start on this 
next workweek. The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring a closed low 
aloft into Texas, from the west, late Sunday night into Monday; 
plus, both models are in very good agreement. Also, the GFS 500mb 
ensemble data shows all members in very good agreement, at least 
through 12Z Tuesday. By mid to late next week, a broad upper ridge
develops over the central CONUS, and rain chances decrease, for 
West Central Texas. As for long term PoPs, a blend of NBM data and
neighbor consensus looks best this forecast cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 58  50  65  49 /  50  70  30   0 
San Angelo 	 59  49  69  51 /  60  70  20   0 
Junction 	 64  53  71  52 /  60  70  20   0 
Brownwood 	 61  51  67  49 /  50  70  30   0 
Sweetwater 	 56  49  65  50 /  60  70  20   0 
Ozona      	 58  49  70  52 /  60  60  20   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$