028 FXUS61 KBGM 091749 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 149 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will track into the Great Lakes, bringing our next round of showers Thursday night through Friday. High pressure will build into the region, leading to a dry Saturday. Another area of low pressure is likely to bring more rain Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 945 AM Thursday... Bumped up high temperatures across western Finger Lakes and into the Lake Plains with southeast downsloping. Should see plenty of sun here and highs should climb up into the 70s. Other than that, previous forecast remains on-track and no other changes are needed at this time. 415 AM Update... Main concern in the near term, will be potential for a few gusty thunderstorms Friday afternoon-early evening as a cold front sweeps through the region. Before then, increasing moisture and eventually showers can be expected. Currently, a ridge of high pressure is still impacting our weather, though it is already straddled over New England and will edge offshore today. To our west, low pressure is near Chicago and will progress across lower Michigan today; then Ontario tonight and into Quebec Friday. Wind field, moisture advections, and frontal boundaries extending out from that low, will dictate how our weather plays out for the next 24-36 hours. Between the ridge and the approaching low, pressure gradient winds will increase out of the southeast to south today, bringing thickening clouds as well as causing cool air damming in the low levels especially east of I-81. This will hold temperatures from getting above upper 50s-lower 60s for most of Northeast PA, as well as much of Central NY east of I-81. Shallow moisture banking against the higher terrain in Northeast PA could even cause spotty light showers later today, though most actual measurable rainfall for our area waits until tonight through Friday. To the west and up to Syracuse, downsloping wind and somewhat thinner cloud cover will allow temperatures to reach mid-upper 60s today. Models continue to depict a wave, associated with warm air advection aloft, running well out ahead of the cold front. This will bring a batch of showers through the region later tonight into Friday morning. Instability aloft will be present yet meager; a rogue embedded lightning strike cannot be ruled out yet will be rare at least for this initial batch of showers. Temperatures will move little tonight, spending most of the time in the 50s yet perhaps creeping up some towards dawn. For Friday, as winds veer from southeast to south-southwest, we will get into the narrow warm sector of the system. Models have further consolidated on the idea that there will probably be a sufficient gap between morning showers, and the cold frontal passage in afternoon-early evening, for some heating and instability to be realized. With dewpoints projected to get to around 60 degrees, and highs of upper 60s-mid 70s - and taking into account model trends - it appears that despite a lack of jet support aloft we will probably get a round of convection to carry through the area. Coverage may include gaps and will probably be limited to in the immediate vicinity of the front, because of poor jet placement and falling precipitable water values behind the initial wave aloft. However, decent amount of shear especially in the 2km-6km would suggest that thunderstorms could contain gusty winds. Midlevel dry air intrusion could also promote evaporational cooling/mixing down of gusts. Storm Prediction Center has included our area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms due to this potential of isolated damaging wind gusts. As for rain, while our ground remains soggy from our recent wet pattern, overall additional amounts tonight-Friday do not appear to be enough for flooding issues; and cells in the final round of convection late Friday will tend to move along quickly. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 3 AM update... Models all have a cold front exiting to the east a cold front around 00z. Maybe a thunderstorm will be ongoing with the front in Pike and Sullivan at that time but confidence not high enough to include. By 06z just a few light showers may be lingering in the western Catskills. Rainfall amounts will be light except maybe for the far southeast right at the start in thunderstorms. with cold air advection behind the front, temperatures will fall to around 40 in CNY and low and mid 40s NEPA/Sullivan County NY. High pressure at the surface and an upper level ridge build into the area late Saturday with dry sinking air. Mostly cloudy skies become partly sunny in the afternoon. High temperatures will be on the cool side with mid 50s to around 60 CNY to low and mid 60s for valleys in NEPA. This will be the best day of the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 3 AM update... The wet unsettled pattern is agreed on but model differences in timing right from the start. Wide range of when the rain starts Saturday night or maybe even Sunday afternoon on the GFS. Still will be the coolest and wettest day of the weekend. This will send rain north of a warm front and low moving ENE up the Ohio Valley Sunday. At this point a digging upper level trough catches up to it, causing it to stall over the eastern Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday. Despite the long duration rain amounts vary from half an inch north to around and inch south. Wednesday there is much uncertainty. Still under a broad upper level trough with some showers possible again. Thursday is showing a weak low passing through with more showers. High temperatures warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday to the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows vary even less, starting around 40 Saturday night then rising only to mid 40s Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions will deteriorate later this evening and overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Solid cloud cover across southern half of the area already has BGM/ELM/ITH/AVP either MVFR or borderline MVFR. Moisture increases this evening and may see IFR ceilings develop in rain showers overnight. Also, low level wind shear will be a concern at all terminals as strong SW flow aloft punches into the region this evening. Outlook... Friday...On-and-off showers and restrictions; thunderstorms also possible afternoon-evening. Late Friday Night through Saturday Night...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible Friday night-early Saturday behind the cold front, then VFR. Sunday through Monday...Restrictions expected in rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MPK/MDP SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MPK