093 FXUS61 KCAR 080145 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 945 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region this evening and offshore tonight. High pressure builds in through Thursday before low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 940 pm Update... Cold front pushing thru downeast areas at this hour. Latest radar reflectivity imagery shows just a few lingering showers along the downeast coast but these will diminish shortly as the front moves offshore. Just a few scattered clouds behind the front across the north, with cloud cover still hugging the coast attm. But expect skies to clear there over the next couple hours as the front exits. Did note extensive area of stratocu across Quebec with 4kft to 5kft ceilings. Need to keep an eye on this as it may begin to push into the crown of Maine after midnight. Otherwise, expect mainly clear skies overnight. No changes to forecast low temperatures overnight, as we are still expecting most areas to drop back into the 30s by early Wednesday morning. previous discussion Shwrs will cont to affect msly Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the FA thru the late aftn, then move E out of the FA into NB prov erly this eve as a cold front finishes crossing the Rgn. This should allow for clrg for most of the area ovrngt. Nocturnal decoupling from stronger winds alf after sunset will keep winds from being gusty ovrngt. Stronger winds alf will continue to be present across the region on Wed and alg with a mdt NW sfc pres grad, will allow winds to increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph across most of the FA by late morn into the aftn, with gusts even up to 35 mph across NW higher trrn lctns. The accompanying llvl cold advcn will likely result in the re-emergence of sct-bkn SC cld cvr across Cntrl and spcly Nrn ptns of the FA from late morn into the aftn as well. Hi temps will be very cool by erly May standards, spcly considering the wind chill. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Wednesday night, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s, but a steady NW wind should prevent strong radiational cooling given the cold air mass. The frost/freeze season in this forecast area has not started, but prolonged temperatures in the low 30s could damage sensitive vegetation that is left out. The winds will die off Thursday as high pressure builds. Have some concern about stratocu in the northeast in the morning with the continuing NW flow, but otherwise not much cloud cover is expected until high clouds increase later in the day. Highs will approach the 60F for much of the area. The high clouds will spill over the upper ridge, thicken and lower Thursday night. This will limit radiational cooling again. The rain is expected to start ahead of the warm front late Thursday night and continue through Friday. It will be a cold rain with highs only reaching the low to mid 40s under a steep frontal inversion. Did push back the start times for precip as the frontal system moves into a fairly stout blocking high. Later on Friday, there is some elevated CAPE approaching and this will have to be watched for possible inclusion of thunder into subsequent forecasts. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The warm front will continue trying to progress northward into the area Friday night and have added patchy fog into the forecast. Looks like an occlusion will end up crossing the forecast area late Friday night with pops decreasing late night. With the lack of significant cold air advection on Saturday, temps will rise to the upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday and this includes the coast with an offshore flow. There will be a lot of residual low level moisture to generate cloud cover...mostly in northern zones. Mixing will increase in the afternoon such that wind gusts over 30 mph can be expected. Sunday looks like the warmest day in this forecast period as highs reach the lower to mid 60s. There will be little H850 moisture remaining and mostly sunny skies should result. Winds will likely be fairly light. The forecast takes on more uncertainty as low pressure approaches with a blocking pattern to the north in Canada. In general, the biggest question will be onset of precip with the 07/12Z being the slowest onset. A multinational blend of guidance brings in precip Monday morning and lingering the better part of two days as a slow-moving closed upper low meanders across the region. An unsettled pattern will follow this system too. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: 940 pm Update... Mainly VFR overnight and Wednesday. Expect Sct-Bkn stratocu to develop across the north during Wednesday but ceiling heights should still remain VFR. The bigger concern on Wednesday is for gusty north to northwest winds with gusts to 30 kt possible at times. SHORT TERM: The predominant condition until Friday will be VFR. Cigs...and occasionally...vis will become IFR Friday. Cigs and vis will be IFR Friday night in advance of a warm front. On Saturday, cigs will lift to MVFR north of HUL and GNR and VFR south of those stations. Strong gusty west winds will occur Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions return Saturday night through Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: An SCA for hzrds seas will cont ovr our outer MZs thru the ovrngt, ending erly Wed morn as winds become more nrly in component lmtg the fetch and resulting in shorter wv hts. Kept close to 07/12z WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts durg this ptn of the fcst. SHORT TERM: Fog is possible later Friday into Saturday morning. There is a chance of SCA conditions Friday into Friday night before the fog and stable conditions arrive. The next threat of SCA conditions will be Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure moves over the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Despite light to locally wetting rainfall especially over Central and Downeast portions of the region this afternoon, strong gusty northwest winds with very low afternoon relative humidities Wednesday afternoon will result in rapid drying of fine fuels. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Duda/VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Duda/VJN/MCW Marine...Duda/VJN/MCW Fire Weather...