661 FXUS63 KTOP 071744 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1244 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019 Convection remains rather persistent over much of central and eastern Kansas early this morning with cloud tops still reaching near -80 C as at least one MCV interacts with a low-level jet around 30 knots in well above normal precipitable water values and 850 mb dewpoints near 14 C. Isolated to scattered convection has recently reformed in far western portions of the state, still well downstream of the upper low over far southeastern California. Outflow from the southern-most MCV was pushing east into southeastern Kansas though gusty south winds were in place over the Texas panhandle just south of the synoptic boundary that still likely stretches east-northeast across the state into central Missouri. Overall expect a slow decrease in precipitation this morning as the MCVs move east and the low-level jet weakens, but the western Kansas rejuvenation despite at least modest mid-level subsidence suggests at least a chance PoP is in order throughout the day, with greater potential near and north of the anticipated reforming front. Modest height falls this afternoon increase tonight with a potentially stronger low-level jet resulting. Expect another round if not multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the evening and overnight hours with at least minor severe weather potential primarily in the form of hail with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and decent effective shear. If clearing can become established in the warm sector along the southern counties, then additional severe weather concerns could materialize this afternoon and evening. Estimated Monday afternoon to early this morning amounts were in the one to two inch range for much of the area and the additional rainfall on quite saturated grounds will continue the flash flood and river flood potential. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019 Wednesday the upper low in the southwest will lift northeast into the Plains. The mass response will initially bring the warm frontal boundary northward into southern Nebraska early Wednesday morning placing the cwa in the warm sector. Morning convection may be ongoing across the area then redevelop along a southeastward moving cold front through the afternoon and into the evening hours. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place, convergence along the front should initiate convection along with forcing for ascent as the upper trough ejects northeast across Kansas. Lapse rates steepen through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards. Precipitable water values across northeast and east central Kansas will be near 1.5 inches and the theta-e ridge will extend from north to south across eastern Kansas into Western Missouri in the afternoon. So once again locally heavy rainfall will be possible which may produce additional flash flooding. Temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s Wednesday, but cooler temperatures in the 40s are expected behind the departing system Wednesday night. Showers will linger into early Thursday across the far eastern CWA with skies mostly cloudy through the day. Cold air advection through the day will hold temperatures in the 50s for highs. Surface high pressure then builds in for Friday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding back into the 60s. Saturday will see another small chance of rain as a mid level trough moves southeast across the Plains and into the Great Lakes Region. This will also bring a cool front southeast across the area Saturday night however temperatures will drop int he 40s Sunday morning before rebounding back into the upper 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019 IFR stratus is expected to continue into the mid-afternoon hours at all terminals. CIGS may briefly lift to MVFR between 21-00Z at all terminals before returning to IFR. Isolated to scattered t-storms will likely develop near 00Z at all terminals, although the best chance for storms looks to arrive to MHK between 06-09Z and between 08-11Z at the Topeka terminals. Scattered showers and storms may persist through the end of the TAF period. Low stratus is likely to also persist through the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...Baerg